The world wheat market in MY 2025/26 will reach record levels — IGS

According to the International Grains Council (IGC), the world wheat harvest in MY 2025/26 will reach a record 819 million tons, compared to 800 million tons in the previous season. A significant contribution to the growth is provided by the EU with a forecast of 140.4 million tons (+18%), Russia – 85 million tons (+5%) and Canada – 36.6 million tons (+2%). At the same time, Ukraine maintains production at the level of 25 million tons, and Australia, despite the expected reduction in the harvest by 1%, has increased its forecast to 33.8 million tons.

World wheat consumption is also growing and will reach 819 million tons in the current season, which is 2% more than last year. The growth in feed use is particularly noticeable – up to 155 million tons, 3 million tons more than in the previous season. The geography of demand is shifting towards Asia and Africa: sub-Saharan Africa imports a record 30.7 million tonnes, Mexico sets a historic high of 6.6 million tonnes, and Brazil buys 6.8 million tonnes.

The increase in wheat supply is intensifying competition among exporters. Russia remains the export leader with 43.4 million tonnes, but supplies may be limited by floating tariffs and exporters’ margins. The EU is showing significant export growth with 30.5 million tonnes compared to 26.1 million tonnes last year, while Australia is reaching a three-year high of 26.3 million tonnes. The US is increasing supplies to 24.5 million tonnes thanks to competitive prices and large contracts with Asian countries.

Analysts expect price pressure to remain in the coming months, driven by replenishment of stocks at suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere and high production rates in major exporting countries.

International trade in wheat flour is set to reach a nine-year high of 17.3 million tonnes, up 1.8 million tonnes from the previous season. The main growth is driven by an increase in imports by Iraq to 1.7 million tonnes and record purchases by Syria and sub-Saharan Africa (3.5 million tonnes).

Among exporters, Turkey is increasing supplies to 5.3 million tonnes after lifting restrictions on wheat imports, while Kazakhstan is increasing exports to an eight-year high of 2.9 million tonnes, driven by demand from Central and South Asian countries.

Tags: wheat