The increase in offers puts pressure on corn prices, but they are supported by a rise in the price of wheat
The market expected a sharp decline in corn prices, but this did not happen, as they received support from speculative growth in wheat prices. However, the number of “bearish” factors of pressure on the corn market is growing: the forecast for the harvest in Ukraine has been increased to 40 million tons, the forecast for the first corn harvest in Brazil has also been increased, and the pace of corn exports from the United States is falling. In addition, Brent crude for the month fell by 7.5% to 7 79/barrel.
December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose 1% to 2 227.1/ton yesterday, adding 6.5% for the month despite falling oil prices.
Corn exports from the United States for November 12-18 amounted to 618.5 thousand tons, having decreased by 35% over the week, and in general in the season reached 7.608 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year’s pace.
As of November 21, corn in the United States is harvested on 95% of the area, compared with 92% on average over 5 years, and the absence of losses further increases the forecast for the harvest.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy has increased its forecast for the corn harvest in Ukraine to 40 million tons compared to 30.63 million tons in 2020/21 MG. Purchase prices for corn in ports during the week fell to 2 268-270/ton or UAH 8100-8200/ton under pressure from an increase in offers and purchases by traders of the necessary batches for November – December. Demand prices for deliveries in January – February are still 5 5-10/ton lower due to the lack of export demand.
December Black Sea corn futures at Chicago SWOT rose вчора 1.5/ton to.279.25/ton yesterday.
The European Union is reducing corn imports amid increased production. According to the European Commission, as of November 14, the EU purchased only 4.52 million tons of corn, which is 45% less than last year, so the import forecast for the current season of 15 million tons is likely to be reduced.
January corn futures on the Paris Stock Exchange rose 7.25 €/ton yesterday to 256 €/ton or 2 287.7/ton on the back of a 3% daily increase in wheat prices.
Safras and Mercado agencies increased their forecast for the first corn harvest in Brazil to 25.7 million tons (compared to last year’s 21.6 million tons) due to a 0.7% increase in sowing areas.
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