Supply shortages and tariffs hit global beef trade

Geopolitics and climate conditions continue to shape global beef trade flows, according to RaboResearch’s Global Beef Quarterly Q3 2025 report.

As cattle herds fall, global cattle prices are rising.

“Northern Hemisphere countries continue to post record prices,” said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. “However, prices in the US and Canada have eased slightly in recent weeks, suggesting that the pace of market growth is slowing somewhat. At the same time, prices in the Southern Hemisphere continue to rise.”

The decline in North American beef supplies, coupled with some improvement in the Chinese market, has resulted in increased demand from Southern Hemisphere beef suppliers. This demand is now being reflected in cattle prices.

Beef production continued to decline during the second quarter, with total volumes in the first half of the year down 1% compared to 2024.

According to the RaboResearch report, the most notable declines were seen in Europe (-5% year-on-year), New Zealand (-17% year-on-year), and the United States (-5% year-on-year). At the same time, Australia and China increased production in the first half of the year compared to last year.

Overall, RaboResearch forecasts a 2% decline in global beef production by 2025.

Tariffs affect U.S. imports

The report notes that U.S. tariffs are also affecting trade. The latest round of tariffs included an additional 40% on top of the existing 10% and an additional 26.4% on Brazilian beef imports.

Brazil shipped a record 336,000 tonnes of beef to the US in the first half of the year, up 25% from a year earlier. RaboResearch believes the additional tariff will have a significant impact on trade between Brazil and the US.

Analysts are asking whether the large volumes imported to the US in the first half of the year will be sufficient to cover the US market in the coming months, or whether the market will face a shortage, which in turn will spur demand from other suppliers.

Processors say shipments to the US have remained relatively stable even after the tariffs were imposed, RaboResearch reports.

“Expectations of higher live cattle prices in Brazil in the second half of the year may explain the current demand from US importers for Brazilian beef,” Gidley-Baird said.

However, he expects Brazilian imports to decline by about 10,000 to 15,000 tonnes per month for the rest of the year.

According to RaboResearch, reduced supplies to the US will create operational challenges for Brazilian processors. The US is the main consumer of Brazilian trimmings, as the domestic market in the South American country prefers the hindquarters. Redirecting volumes to other markets may require changes in carcass processing technology. China, the Middle East and Egypt have historically been the main importers of Brazilian forequarters.

In Europe, the market shortage is also driving up imports. In addition, animal diseases such as bluetongue outbreaks continue to have a negative impact on production.

In June 2025, lumpy skin disease first appeared in Italy and France. Switzerland recently began vaccinating against the virus as a precaution.

Tags: Brazil, prices, Beef cattle, USA