Sunflower: What to expect in the second half of 2024/25? 

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

UkrAgroConsult’s estimate of Ukraine 2024 SFS harvest remains at 12.5 M mt. This is by 16% lower than in 2023 due to the reduced areas and low yields/drought.

In the first five months of the 2024/25 (Sept-Jan), SFS exports were 39.6 K mt, the lowest in the last three seasons. In January, a large quantity of SFS was exported to France – more than 19 K mt.

SFO exports for the first five months of the season are 19% lower than last year – 2066 K mt (2551 K mt last season). The exports are the lowest in the last five seasons.

This season, farmers are following the strategy of limiting SFS sales. Apart from this strategy, the only factor that moves the SFS price is the decline in SFO prices. In 2024/25 crushers are almost unable to replenish SFS stocks, especially in large quantities. Sunflower seed will be the most profitable oilseed, with increasing areas in 2025.

UkrAgroConsult estimates that Ukraine already exported 41% of the total SFO export potential in Sept-Jan.

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Tags: Ukraine, sunflower oil, export, sunseed, supply and demand balance, crop forecast