Sunflower oil. Focusing on the prospects of the current 2025/26 season
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
Black Sea & Danube region sets the global sunflower oil trends this year. Despite record SFS area in 2025 (8% more y/y), weather trimmed yields. Regional crop now seen near 35.0 M mt, about 0.4% below y/y.
russia offsets weak SFS crop in the South with better Central/North, while Ukraine misses expected gains in the North and West and rains slow harvest and hurt seed quality. Since March 2025, Ukraine’s crop forecasts are cut by about 3.0 M mt and russia by about 0.8 M mt.
UkrAgroConsult SFS numbers
- Ukraine – (8% less y/y)
- russia -(2% more)
- EU – (3% more y/y but still about 9% below its 5-year average).
Prices favor sunoil. Global spreads vs palm and soy reached roughly 270 $/mt and 200 $/mt in early November.
UkrAgroConsult considers early November brief price correction as technical because Ukraine’s crush capacity remains long relative to seed supply, so sunoil availability stays tight through the 2025/26 season.
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