Strategie Grains Raises EU Wheat Crop Forecast Again

Strategie Grains lifted its forecast for the European Union’s main wheat crop for the third month in a row as Spain and southeast Europe remain on course for a bumper harvest, while rain has brought relief to parched parts of northern Europe.

In monthly cereal forecasts, the consultancy projected EU soft wheat production at 130.7 million metric tonnes, up from 129.8 million expected in May and now 15.5% above last year’s rain-hit harvest.

Like other forecasters, Strategie Grains has pointed to ample rain in southern Europe during spring that has boosted crop development, even as a swathe of northern Europe including parts of France and Germany experienced very low precipitation.

“Once again, we increase already very good soft wheat and barley harvest estimates in Spain, Romania and Bulgaria,” the consultancy said in a summary of its report.

“Soft wheat production is expected to reach all-time highs in Spain and Romania (provided that conditions for harvesting remain good).”

Rainfall since late May in northerly regions had stabilised field conditions for wheat and barley, though yield potential was uncertain in northern France and Germany, it added.

The prospect of a much bigger EU crop this year, along with higher expected requirements in importing countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, should boost EU wheat exports in 2025/26, Strategie Grains said.

It raised its outlook for 2025/26 EU soft wheat exports to 31.8 million tonnes from 31.2 million last month, up nearly 29% from an expected 24.7 million this season.

For barley, Strategie Grains kept unchanged its EU harvest estimate at 52.4 million tonnes, up 5.4% from last year’s volume. It also anticipated higher EU barley exports next season, citing the larger EU crop and expectations of less competition from Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish barley.

For maize, the consultancy increased its estimate for the 2025 crop to 60.4 million from 59.9 million tonnes projected in May, now 3.1% above the 2024 level.

Yields are still expected to recover sharply in southeast Europe following last year’s drought-withered crop, it said, adding more rain was needed in southern France and Hungary.

Tags: European Union, Production, wheat, crop, forecast, maize, soft wheat, Stratégie grains, exports, harvest, barley