Stock prices for wheat fell by 1.6-3%, losing growth in the last month

On Friday, wheat prices on world exchanges fell by 1.6-3%, losing for the week to 4.5% of the price, under pressure from the new balance sheet of the IGC, the extension of the ban on imports of wheat by Turkey and the permission of the Russian Federation to transit grain from Kazakhstan.

IGC experts in the October report left the forecast of world wheat production in 2024/25 MG at 798 million tons, as the improvement of crop estimates for Kazakhstan by 1 to 17 million tons offset by lower forecasts for Australia by 0.5 to 31.3 million tons and Argentina – by 0.3 to 18.1 million tons.

Last week, Russia temporarily banned grain imports from Kazakhstan, but allowed its transit through its territory for export to other countries.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture and the Union of Grain Exporters decided to exclude foreign intermediaries from the supply chain of Russian grain to 13 countries. Now, grain will be directly supplied to state agencies and sovereign buyers in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Qatar, Kuwait, South Korea, Pakistan, India and Iraq. This is another step towards monopolization of wheat exports and increased pressure on world prices by the largest grain supplier. Last year, we already saw how prices for Russian wheat were the same for all sellers at tenders in Egypt.

Turkey’s TMO agency has maintained a 15% duty on wheat imports until December 31, which will restrain supplies and cause losses to exporters, primarily from Russia.

On Friday, the December futures declined:

• by 3% to 210,45 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-4.4% for the week, -1.6% for the month),
• by 2.7% to 213.4 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (-4.1%, +0.7%),
• by 2% to 226.5 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (-4.5%, -0.2%),
• by 1.6% to 226.5 €/t or 246 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (-1.1%, +3.3%).

Purchase price of wheat in Ukraine at the beginning of last week rose sharply, but then decreased by 1-3 $/t to 210-214 $/t or 9700-9900 UAH/t for food and by 2-3 $/t to 198-200 $/t or 9250-9300 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to the ports of the black sea.

Dry and warm weather in Ukraine, the United States and Russia can accelerate sowing, but the lack of precipitation in the next 10 days may adversely affect the emergence of seedlings and crop condition.

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Tags: prices, wheat