Stock market quotations for wheat during the week collapsed by 6-10%

Last week, stock exchange quotations for wheat fell by 6-10% against the background of forecasts of an increase in the harvest in the USA, negotiations on the continuation of the grain corridor from Ukraine and a decrease in export rates under the pressure of increased competition from the Russian Federation.

Experts of the US MSG predict that in 2023 wheat production in the country will grow by 14% compared to 2022 to 51.3 million tons, and the sown area to 49.5 million acres (45.7 million acres in 2022 and 46 .7 million acres in 2021), while exports will amount to 22.4 million tons, which will correspond to the long-term average level. Areas planted to winter wheat increased by 11% to 37 million acres, which adds optimism to USDA experts.

According to USDA’s NASS, 19% of crops were in good or excellent condition in Kansas and Texas as of Feb. 26, down slightly from late January.

Exports of wheat from the USA for the week of February 17-23 grew by 58% to 591.7 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 15.252 million tons, which is 258 thousand tons less than last year’s pace.

Yesterday wheat quotes fell:

• by 1.8% or $4.55/t to $255.7/t – March futures for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-7.8% for the week),
• by 2.3% or $6.89/t to $302.4/t – March HRW hard winter wheat futures in Kansas City (-10%).
• by 1.9% or $5.88/t to $319.5/t – March futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis (-6.4%).
• by 0.4% or $1.5/t to $297.25/t – March Black Sea wheat futures in Chicago (-1.6%).
• by 0.8% or €2.25/t to €277.5/t or $293.75/t – March wheat futures on Paris Euronext (-6.1%).

The European Commission reduced the forecast for the export of soft wheat in 2022/23 MR by 2 million tons to 32 million tons against the background of a decrease in world prices and export rates. The lack of moisture in Spain, Italy and France has a negative impact on crops, so farmers may reduce sales in the event of unfavorable conditions for sowing in the spring. For France, 2022 has become a record hot year, the amount of snow in the Italian Alps has decreased by 53%, and the water level in the basin of the largest Italian river, the Po, is 61% below normal.

A report published in January by the journal Nature Climate Change says that in Europe’s main mountain range, the Alps, which feed rivers, the duration of snow cover has decreased by 5.6% every 10 years over the past 50 years.

Tags: Ukraine, EU, prices, wheat, USA