StatCan experts have sharply lowered their harvest forecasts for wheat, barley and canola, but raised soybeans and corn

Yesterday’s report by Statistics Canada (StatCan) significantly lowered the harvest forecasts for wheat, barley and canola, but increased the estimates of soybean and corn production compared to 2022.

According to StatCan estimates, the wheat harvest in the country in 2023/24 MY will decrease by 14.2% from 33.82 mln tonnes to 29.5 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, while USDA estimated the harvest at 33 mln tonnes in August. Despite the increase in sowing areas by 5.6% from 24.9 to 26.3 million acres, low yields will lead to a reduction in production, especially of spring wheat, which will decrease by 14.5% to 22.1 million tons.

Barley production will decline by 20.7% from 9.5 to 7.9 million tons compared to the previous season due to a 21.4% decrease in yields from 67 to 55.3 bushels/acre, although the planted area increased by 1% from 6.5 to 6.6 million acres.

Oat production will decline by 53.5% to a 10-year low of 2.4 million tons due to a 21.4% decline in yields to 76.9 bushels/acre and a 40.9% decline in planted areas to 2 million acres.

Corn production will increase by 1.3% to 14.7 million tons (15.3 million tons in the August USDA report) due to an increase in planted area by 4.1% to 3.7 million acres, although yields will decrease by 2.7% to 156.1 bushels/acre.

The canola harvest will decrease by 6.1% to 17.6 million tons, which will be the second lowest in the last 9 years. Planted areas increased by 3% to 21.9 million acres or 8.87 million hectares, but yields will decrease by 8.8% to 35.4 bushels/acre due to dry weather in the prairies.

In Saskatchewan, a major producer of canola, production will decline by 6.3% to 9.1 million tons compared to last year, as yields will decrease by 13.9% to 32.7 bushels/acre, although planted area increased by 8.7% to 12.3 million acres.

In Alberta, the canola crop will decrease by 1.2% to 5.5 million tons due to a 3% decrease in planted area to 6.3 million acres, although the yield will increase by 1.8% to 38.8 bushels/acre.

In Manitoba, the canola crop will decrease by 13.3% to 2.7 million tons, yields will decrease by 9.5% to 39.2 bushels/acre, and planted areas will decrease by 4.1% to 3.1 million acres.

Soybean production will increase by 2.9% to 6.7 million tons due to an increase in planted area by 6.8% to 5.6 million acres, which will offset a 3.5% decrease in yield to 44.3 bushels/acre.

Tags: Canada, wheat, rapeseed, crop forecast