Standoff with China has led to record lows in US beef exports

According to the latest market report prepared by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), due to the multi-tiered lockout in China, export performance has worsened throughout 2025 as eligible product inventories have been depleted and more plants suspended production in June and August.

In August, exports fell to just 862 metric tons, a 94% decrease from the previous year. From January to August, exports to China were 52% lower than last year in volume (56,494 metric tons) and 53% lower in value (US$484.2 million). The cumulative export decline from January to October is estimated at US$832 million, with exports in September and October also certain to be minimal.

As previously reported by USMEF, China has not renewed the registrations of the vast majority of U.S. beef processing plants and cold storage facilities. However, extending these registrations is only one step needed to restore access for American beef to China, where 16 American plants have been suspended since June, and 30 plants will be suspended starting in 2022. For China to return to its obligations under the Phase 1 agreement between the US and China, it must remove all barriers to access for American beef.

Beef exports to Korea, the leading market, were slightly below last year’s volume in August, down 1.5% to 16,823 tonnes. However, export value still increased 3% to $168 million. From January to August, exports to Korea increased 8% year-over-year in volume (162,907 tonnes) and 9% in value ($1.55 billion).

Beef exports to Central America once again performed strongly in August, increasing 5% year-on-year to 1,512 tonnes, while the value rose 50% to US$17 million. Thanks to robust growth in Guatemala and Costa Rica, beef exports to the region reached a record pace in January-August, reaching 14,520 tonnes, up 6% year-on-year, while the value rose 34% to US$134.2 million.

Among other markets, beef exports in August increased year-on-year to the Caribbean, led by growth in the Dominican Republic, the Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as to South America, driven primarily by growth in Chile (where exports exceeded last year’s levels in each of the past six months) and a recovery in Colombia. Exports also increased to Hong Kong, the Philippines, Vietnam, Europe, and Morocco, but decreased to Japan, Mexico, Canada, Taiwan, and the Middle East.

Beef export value in August was $372.10 per fed head, down 5% from a year earlier. The average export value for January-August was $400.16 per head, down 3.5% from the same period last year. Exports accounted for 12.1% of total beef production in August and 9.8% of lean beef alone, down approximately one percentage point from a year earlier. The January-August ratio was 13.1% of total production and 11% for lean beef, down from 13.9% and 11.6%, respectively, for the same period last year.

Tags: China, Beef cattle, USA