Stable world wheat prices keep prices in Ukraine high

Despite the collapse of financial markets caused by the Trump administration’s imposition of import tariffs, commodity markets have so far remained stable as investors hope that Trump will cancel or at least postpone the tariffs in order to negotiate with other countries.

In Ukraine, wheat export prices remain quite high due to a shortage of supply and a slight increase in quotations on world exchanges. The fall in the dollar exchange rate against major currencies contributed to the strengthening of the hryvnia, which reduced hryvnia purchase prices.

Export demand prices for feed wheat remain within the range of 10,500–10,600 UAH/t or $222–225/t, and for food wheat — 10,700–10,900 UAH/t or $228–234/t, and traders are willing to pay more for large batches.

The pace of wheat exports from Ukraine continues to decline. In the first week of April, exports amounted to only 147 thousand tons (compared to 700 thousand tons for the same period in 2024), and in total for the season reached 13.26 million tons, which is 10% less than at this date last year. By the end of the season, Ukraine can export another 2 million tons of wheat, so traders continue active purchases.

Rainfall over the weekend was less than forecast, and frost will again reduce soil moisture reserves. Good rains in the US and Europe improved the condition of crops.

According to the first Crop Progress report of the year, as of April 6, 48% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was in good or excellent condition (56% a year ago and 55% in the fall after planting). Spring wheat was sown at 3% of the area, which is in line with last year and the 5-year average.

May wheat futures rose yesterday:

• by 1.4% to $197.3/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (0% for the week),
• by 0.3% to $205.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+0.4%),
• by 1.6% to $218.3/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+0.4%),
• by 1.2% to €224.75/t or $246.5/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris (+2%).

Wheat exports from the United States for the week ending April 3 decreased by 33% to 335,000 tons, and in total for the season reached 17.69 million tons, which is 15% higher than last year’s pace.

Markets remain under pressure from the threat of new tariffs in response to the US actions, which could lead to supply disruptions and short-term increases in grain prices. However, in the longer term, given the deepening global economic crisis, grain demand and prices will fall.

According to updated USDA forecasts, India may set a new record for gross wheat harvest in MY 2025/26 for the third time in a row, harvesting 115 million tons (which will exceed the current season’s figure by 2%) due to the expansion of sown areas to 32.6 million hectares and favorable weather conditions in the country’s main agricultural regions.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat