Spread between sunflower and palm oil reaches $270 per tonne

UkrAgroConsult

Palm oil prices have fallen below $1000 per tonne for the first time since July 2025, signaling a sharp weakening in the global vegetable oil market. Against this backdrop, sunflower oil continues to show relative resilience, maintaining high prices thanks to a smaller-than-expected harvest. As a result, the spread between sunflower and palm oil has widened to a record $270 per tonne.

The palm oil market remains under pressure from weak import demand in India, improving trade relations between the U.S. and China, and declining global crude oil prices. In addition, uncertainty surrounding the implementation of Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel program is adding further downward pressure on prices.

Sunflower oil, by contrast, continues to receive market support. Lower harvest estimates in Ukraine, Russia, and parts of the EU have prevented prices from falling, while processors are actively seeking a balance among different types of oilseed raw materials. The resulting supply deficit is keeping sunflower oil prices firm despite generally weaker importer interest.

In Ukraine’s domestic market, sunflower seed prices rose last week to over UAH 29,000 per tonne (CPT), while oil producers are offering sunflower oil at $1250–1260 per tonne FCA-plant. On external markets, Ukrainian sunflower oil continues to hold a premium over palm oil, with deliveries to India priced at $1340–1350 per tonne CIF Mumbai.

Analysts at UkrAgroConsult expect that if palm oil prices continue to fall, some buyers may shift to cheaper alternatives, gradually narrowing the price gap. However, as long as sunflower oil supply remains tight, the market is likely to maintain a high spread, with stabilization expected only after Argentina’s new harvest enters the market in early 2026.

More detailed information on the latest trends in oilseeds/vegoils and meals exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for Online Analytics “Black Sea Vegoils” in the new innovative tool for agri market participants – AgriSupp by UkrAgroConsult. Subscribe to a 7-day free trial!

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Tags: sunflower oil, prices, India, palm oil, Argentina, Ukraine