Speculative growth in soybean quotes in Chicago continues and supports prices in Ukraine, but they are limited by low demand

The US soybean market is experiencing a strong speculative price increase in anticipation of China’s purchase of the declared 12 million tons of soybeans from the US.

Yesterday, November soybean quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade rose another 1.8% to $411.4/t (+5% for the week, +9.8% for the month).

Traders did not react to the data from the export inspection report, according to which, during October 24-30, soybean exports from the United States decreased by 16.8% compared to the previous week to 965 thousand tons (of which 234 thousand tons were delivered to Egypt, 138.6 thousand tons to Italy), and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 7.78 million tons, which is 40% lower than last year’s pace.

It is worth noting that the statement on the purchase of 12 million tons of soybeans was made by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, but the Chinese side has not yet commented on the purchase plans. Given China’s policy, it will not actively buy in the growing market, and may wait, having sufficient reserves of Brazilian soybeans. Moreover, soybean sowing in Brazil is taking place under favorable weather conditions, so the forecasts for the new harvest remain at a record level.

According to the AgRural agency, as of October 30, 47% of the planned area has been sown with soybeans in Brazil, which is lower than last year’s pace (54%), but heavy rains, which delay sowing, are accelerating the development of crops.

Rising world quotations and limited supply from farmers support soybean prices in Ukraine. During the week, export demand prices increased by another $3-5/t to $398-405/t or UAH 17,200-17,400/t delivered to the port, but demand remains low, and is mainly from Turkey, as the markets of Egypt and the EU are actively occupied by cheap American soybeans.

Soybean export rates from Ukraine remain extremely low. In the MY 2025/26 (September 1 – October 30), Ukraine exported only about 300 thousand tons of soybeans compared to 918 thousand tons for the same period last year.

Farmers are not yet accustomed to the new export rules, so deliveries under foreign exchange contracts are limited.

This is actively used by processors, who keep the purchase prices of GM soybeans at the level of 16,800-17,500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

The decline in demand and prices for soybean meal continues against the backdrop of an active seasonal increase in the supply of rapeseed and sunflower meal, so it is quite difficult for soybean processors in Ukraine to raise purchase prices for soybeans, having no opportunities to export soybean meal. If the downward trend in sunflower prices in Ukraine intensifies, the growth of domestic soybean prices may stop, especially in the event of a rollback in soybean quotes after a speculative increase.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean