Soybeans in the Red This Morning. Wednesday, November 6, 2024
December corn is up 2¾¢ this morning.
January soybeans are down 3¾¢.
December wheat contracts are also down. CBOT wheat is down 1¾¢. KC wheat is down 4½¢. Minneapolis wheat is down 5¼¢.
It’s the morning after Election Day and the Associated Press has called the Presidential race for former President Donald Trump. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in the overnight trade soybeans were down over fear the outcome of the election will lead to a trade war with China.
“But history tells us that we have been moving in that direction for years regardless of Trump’s election,” he said. “Looking back at the previous trade war, most observers will point out that U.S. sales plummeted during that time. But that had more to do with suppressed demand due to how African Swine Fever had decimated China’s hog herd.
“China’s ‘unofficial’ policy has been to buy as many soybeans as it can from South America, and then to buy the rest of what it needs from the United States. You can point to geopolitical tensions as a motivation for that, but the fact is that currency exchange rates generally make South American soybeans cheaper than U.S. supplies, when those supplies are available in South America. That was true prior to the trade war, it was true in 2019 and 2020, and it has been true since then, with sales declining as Brazil continues to expand production, increasing the availability of soybeans. This will continue to be the case. China will still pay what it needs to get the soybeans it needs — tariff war or not.”
December live cattle are up 78¢. January feeder cattle are up $1.75. December lean hogs are up 18¢.
December crude oil is down 49¢.
The U.S. Dollar Index December contract is up to 105.
December S&P 500 futures are up 100 points. December Dow futures are up 1,261 points.
Suderman noted Wall Street expects a “pro-business agenda” fro a Trump White House.
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