Soybean quotes in Chicago continue to fall, which lowers soybean prices in Ukraine

We predicted that the speculative rise in soybean quotes in Chicago, caused by China’s promises to buy American soybeans, would quickly stop against the backdrop of reality and prices would fall, but the market is falling more slowly, hoping for an increase in supplies from the US to China.

At the same time, China has never provided written confirmation of its commitments to buy 12-25 million tons of soybeans from the United States, which American officials declared after the meeting between Trump and Xi in October, and buys small batches of 300-500 thousand tons every Sunday, which does not guarantee the purchase of 12 million tons by the end of 2025.

January soybean futures in Chicago rose 13.7% in the month after the Trump-Xi meeting, and then began a gradual decline, falling 3.1% in the last week to $401.2/t (-3.3% in the month), but are still trading 3.2% more expensive than 3 months ago.

In the 2025/26 MY (September 1 – December 7), the US exported only 12.9 million tons, which is 45.2% lower than the corresponding figure last year and is 29% of the forecasted exports for the season.

In Ukraine, export demand for soybeans remains high due to low supply from farmers who prefer to sell for hryvnia to processors, so traders are forced to overpay to form export batches.

Export purchase prices for GMO soybeans increased by another $3-5/t to $418-422/t or 18,200-18,500 UAH/t, and for non-GMO soybeans – by $5/t to $450-455/t or 19,000-19,200 UAH/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, while processors offer 18,200-18,500 UAH/t for GMO soybeans (protein 37-38%), and 18,600-19,000 UAH/t (protein 39-40%) for non-GMO soybeans with delivery to the factory.

According to the AgRural agency, 94% of the planned area has been sown with soybeans in Brazil (95% last year), and heavy rains in central Brazil this week will continue to improve the condition of the crops.

Soybean shipments from Brazil remain strong. In November, exports increased by 64% year-on-year to 4.2 million tonnes, and the National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) estimates that December shipments will exceed last year’s by about 90% and will amount to 2.8 million tonnes. The association forecasts total Brazilian soybean exports in 2025 at 110 million tonnes, compared to 97.3 million tonnes last year.

Soybean prices in Brazil remain high at $414-430/t amid reduced supply at the end of the season due to farmers’ busy schedules in the fields.

Today, the USDA is likely to increase its estimate of global soybean stocks due to falling demand, but will not change its production forecasts in Brazil, which will also increase pressure on quotes.

Tags: prices, soybean