Soybean prices in Ukraine fall as global market becomes saturated with South American soybeans

The completion of record soybean harvests of 170 million tons in Brazil (155 million tons last year) and 49 (49) million tons in Argentina sharply increased the supply of soybeans, soybean oil and meal on the world market, which collapsed prices in China and Ukraine. In China, amid increased supplies from Brazil, soybean meal prices fell by 14% in May.

In Ukraine, during the week, processors, amid a decline in export demand for meal, reduced prices for GMO soybeans by 500-700 UAH/t to 17,000-17,200 UAH/t with delivery to the plant, while export demand prices at ports fell to 17,900-18,000 UAH/t or $382-384/t, but the number of traders conducting purchases is decreasing.

Export demand prices for GMO-free soybeans have also decreased to $425-430/t or UAH 20,000-20,400/t with delivery to the port, but the number of companies continuing to purchase is decreasing due to difficulties with selling soybeans on the world market.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, July soybean futures fell 2.1% to $382/t (-0.5% month-on-month) for the week, and November futures fell to $375/t, while July soybean oil futures fell 5.8% to $1,030/t (-4%) under pressure from uncertainty over US-China trade relations and the Trump Administration’s decision on US biofuel production volumes in 2026.

The U.S. government is developing a mandate to blend biofuels with conventional fuels starting in 2026. Some in the oil industry oppose a high mandate that would boost demand for agricultural products, which has been hit by Trump’s tariffs on China. China has not yet purchased any new crop corn, soybeans or wheat from the United States, according to the USDA.

Increasing domestic demand is a top priority for producers, industry groups, and traders, as export sales of new crop soybeans are currently 79% below the 5-year average, adding to the challenges in the agricultural sector.

Increased global supplies from bumper harvests have pushed the grain price index down more than 40% from its 2022 peak. And the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest level since the 1950s, reducing demand for feed grains.

Agricultural giants ADM, Bunge Global, Cargill Inc and trade groups including Clean Fuels Alliance America would like the Environmental Protection Agency to set the RVO for biodiesel at no less than 5.25 billion gallons starting in 2026, a 60% increase from the 2025 level.

As of June 1, 84% of the planned area has been sown with soybeans in the US (80% on average over 5 years), and the weather is conducive to the development of crops, which will continue to put pressure on prices.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean