Soybean prices have been supported by soybean oil in recent weeks

Soybean prices have been supported by soybean oil in recent weeks, although South American supplies and U.S. planting progress have weighed. Technical trading has dominated, with uncertainty over international trade relations playing a role in sentiment.

The International Grains Council (IGC) said in its May 22 grains market report that since its last release a month earlier, “average global soybean export prices have been flat, as lower quotations in Argentina contrasted with modest gains in Brazil and the U.S.”

“Chicago spot soybean futures were slightly firmer, with trading sometimes technical amid few fundamental developments,” the IGC said. “Sentiment was often shaped by evolving perceptions of the U.S.-China trade relationship, with news that both countries had cut tariff rates significantly for a 90-day period providing support in late April.

“The market was also supported by strength in soybean oil. However, large South American inventories, together with solid planting progress in the US, weighed on the market. With underlying levels weakening, Gulf export prices were slightly higher m/m at $418 fob. Brazilian export prices (Paranagua) were 2% higher m/m at $406 fob, largely tracking movements in US futures as fob premiums showed little net change.”

In contrast, Argentina FOB (Up River) offers were down 3% m/m at $396 fob, “improving the country’s competitiveness and helping to generate strong selling in recent weeks,” the IGC said.

On canola, the IGC said that on the back of favourable fundamentals, particularly declining old-crop stocks, ICE canola futures in Canada were up 6% from the previous month, with rising vegetable oil prices helping to boost the gains, while “in physical markets, FOB (Vancouver) prices rose $26 to $555, while Australian (Kwinana) offers also rose.”

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in its Food Price Index released on May 2 said vegetable oil prices were up 2.3% in April from March, but almost 21% above their April 2024 levels.

“The decline was mainly due to lower palm oil prices, which more than offset higher soybean and rapeseed oil quotations, while international sunflower oil prices remained broadly stable,” the Rome, Italy-based organization said. “After two months of increases, international palm oil prices fell markedly in April, largely reflecting a gradual recovery in global export supplies due to seasonally higher production in the main Southeast Asian producing countries.”

International soybean and rapeseed oil prices continue to rise, broadly reflecting respectively persistently strong global import demand and tightening supplies as the 2024/25 season approaches.

“International sunflower oil prices, meanwhile, fluctuated within a narrow range in April but remained well above their year-earlier levels amid tighter supplies from the Black Sea region,” FAO said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, in its Oilseed Outlook: May 2025 report, forecasts global oilseed production to rise by 14.9 million tons in 2025–26 to nearly 692 million tons.

“Most of the gain is driven by higher soybean production, which is expected to reach a record 426.8 million tons,” the ERS said.

ERS forecasts rapeseed production to recover by 4.5 million tons to 89.6 million tons and sunflowerseed by 4.3 million tons to 56.2 million tons, “driven by modest increases in area and trend yields.”

World oilseed trade is forecast to increase by 6.8 million tonnes to 215.1 million tonnes “led by higher soybean, groundnut and sunflowerseed exports, partly offset by lower rapeseed and cotton exports,” the ERS report said, also forecasting a rise in world oilseed crushing by 18.4 million tonnes to 580.5 million tonnes, with soybean crushing accounting for 67% of the increase.

Tags: soybean oil, prices, soybean