Soybean prices await harvest results in South America and new US tariffs

Soybean prices have remained stable for three weeks now, awaiting the completion of the harvest in South America, forecasts of planting areas in the US, and new US tariffs that will take effect next week. In Ukraine, soybean export prices also remain unchanged against the backdrop of limited supply and low demand.

May soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade have been trading at $370/t for three weeks (-4.2% month-on-month). U.S. soybean exports to China have increased slightly, but could be limited by new tariffs. At the end of March, the USDA will release its first forecast for 2025 plantings, which will be a strong factor influencing prices.

According to AgRural, as of March 20, soybeans in Brazil have been harvested on 77% of the area (69% last year). At the same time, the agency lowered its forecast for the soybean harvest in the MY 2024/25 by 2.3 million tons to 165.9 million tons, although the USDA estimated it at 169 million tons in March.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its forecast for Argentina’s soybean harvest in the MY 2024/25 by 1 million tons to 48.6 million tons, which is almost in line with the USDA forecast of 49 million tons.

Soybean exports from the US during March 14-20 increased by 25% compared to the previous week to 822 thousand tons (of which 404 thousand tons were purchased by China), and in total for the season amounted to 39.93 million tons, which is 9.2% ahead of last year’s pace.

According to the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, in January-February 2025, China imported 9.13 million tons of soybeans from the United States, compared to 4.96 million tons in the same period last year, which is explained by the expectation of a new trade war and China’s desire to maximize purchases of American soybeans. Soybean imports from Brazil during this period decreased by 48.4% compared to last year’s pace to 3.59 million tons, which is also due to the delay in the harvest in Brazil.

In Ukraine, export prices for GMO soybeans at Black Sea ports remained at $385-388/t or UAH 17,900-18,200/t during the week amid reduced supply, although some traders were willing to pay an additional UAH 50-100/t to complete the formation of export batches. At the same time, processors continued to restrain purchases and offered UAH 17,000-17,500/t for soybeans delivered to the factory.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans in Black Sea ports increased by $3-5/t to $425-428/t or UAH 19,600-20,000/t during the week due to a shortage of supply.

In March, Ukraine reduced soybean exports by 35%, as the largest buyer of Ukrainian soybeans, Egypt, began buying GMO soybeans from the United States, which are offered at a price of $425/t CIF, while Ukrainian soybean prices are $427-430/t CIF.

Brazil is increasing soybean supplies at low prices thanks to a record harvest, so importers are likely to hold back on purchases for a few more weeks.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean