Soybean oil quotes continue to decline, increasing pressure on prices of other oils

The start of the harvest of American soybeans, which China still refuses to buy, is putting pressure on soybean and soybean oil prices in Chicago, affecting neighboring palm and sunflower oil markets.

December soybean oil quotes in Chicago fell 4.2% to $1,112/tonne in a week (-5% in a month), receiving additional pressure from the uncertainty of the Trump Administration’s policy regarding biofuel production quotas for 2026-27.

At the same time, prices for Brazilian soybean oil are $1,130-1,135/t FOB, and for soybean oil in China – remain at a low level of $1,180/t (Daylian) for deliveries in September due to active imports of soybeans from Brazil, which have already been purchased for delivery in November.

October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia exchange have been trading at a stable level of 4,479 ringgit/t or $1,065/t for three weeks amid active exports to India, which is preparing for the seasonal autumn holidays.

The global vegetable oil market is expecting the results of the rapeseed, sunflower, and soybean harvests, as well as an increase in vegetable oil production in the 2025/26 MY and an increase in demand, so prices are beginning to stabilize in anticipation of new influencing factors.

Sunflower oil prices in India, after a supply-shortage-driven increase in August, have fallen by $15-20/t to $1,270-1,280/t C&F over the past week, which is also putting pressure on prices in the Black Sea region.

Demand prices for sunflower oil for delivery in September-October in the Russian Federation decreased by another $5-10/t to $1,130-1,135/t FOB in a week on forecasts of a large sunflower harvest this season, and in Ukraine they fell to the level of $1,170-1,190/t for delivery to Black Sea ports against the background of increased sunflower supplies. The fall in rapeseed prices in Ukraine, caused by the suspension of exports, increases the processing margin, so plants are increasing their plans to process rapeseed, not sunflower.

Currently, we also expect a decrease in sunflower oil prices in Ukraine and, following them, in sunflower prices, which currently reach 27,000-28,000 UAH/t or $575-600/t excluding VAT compared to rapeseed prices at 23,000-23,500 UAH/t or $490-500/t excluding VAT.

Prices for Ukrainian rapeseed oil are now significantly lower than in the EU, so processors are stepping up deliveries. The price of rapeseed oil in the EU fell by $10/t in a week to $1,245-1,250/t FOB Netherlands for delivery in September.

Oil prices are holding at $67/barrel, but the latest Israeli strikes on the capital of Qatar and the flight of Russian drones over Poland will increase political tensions, contributing to a speculative increase in oil prices.