SovEcon cuts Russian wheat export forecast on weaker competitiveness

The analytical firm SovEcon has revised down its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025–2026 season by 0.3 million tonnes, to 45.4 million tonnes. The downgrade reflects the loss of Russia’s traditional price advantage on the global market, particularly compared to supplies from the European Union.

According to the consultancy, Russian 12.5% protein wheat is now trading at roughly the same level as Romanian origin, whereas for most of the season it was offered at a discount of several dollars per tonne. A relatively strong ruble, supported by tight monetary policy, continues to pressure exporters’ margins and limit pricing flexibility.

At the same time, SovEcon raised its barley export forecast by 0.2 million tonnes to 4.3 million tonnes, and increased its corn export estimate by 0.2 million tonnes to 3.4 million tonnes. Total Russian grain exports for the 2025–2026 season are now projected at 55.1 million tonnes, up 0.1 million tonnes from the previous estimate.

Despite trimming the current season outlook, the company lifted its wheat export forecast for the 2026–2027 marketing year by 2.1 million tonnes to 41.7 million tonnes. SovEcon’s head Andrey Sizov noted that without major weather disruptions or new geopolitical shocks, there is limited potential for a sustained price rally through the end of the season.

The consultancy also lowered its forecast for peak Black Sea 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices to $235–245 per tonne, compared with the previous range of $240–250 per tonne. With generally favorable crop prospects in the Northern Hemisphere and no major disruptions in the Black Sea region, a significant rise in export quotations before the season’s end appears unlikely.

Tags: Russia, corn, export, wheat, crop forecast