South Africa’s corn exports on rise

A positive outlook for South Africa’s 2025-26 corn crop following the previous season’s strong harvest is leading to oversupply in the domestic market with exports anticipated to increase amid lackluster growth in domestic demand, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Favorable La Niña weather conditions in South Africa brought normal to above-normal rainfall during the corn planting period during October to December, leading to projected production of 16 million tonnes for marketing year 2025-26 (May 2026 to April 2027). The outlook comes on the heels of an estimated 17 million tonnes harvested for 2024-25, the third largest on record.

Domestic corn consumption is projected to register only modest growth in 2024-25 and 2025-26, from 14 million to 14.2 million tonnes, as South Africa continues to face sluggish economic growth and persistently high unemployment, keeping per capita consumption relatively stable, the FAS said.

The record-high yellow corn crop in 2024-25, estimated at 8.2 million tonnes, is expected to reduce the use of white corn in animal feed rations compared to the previous FAS estimate. Total corn use in feed for 2025-26 is projected to be 7.1 million tonnes, up slightly from 7 million the previous year.

South Africa’s corn exports for 2025-26 are forecast to remain significant at 2.2 million tonnes, increasing from 1.8 million tonnes in 2024-25, which was revised upward due to increased regional demand, particularly from Zimbabwe.

Corn exports remain concentrated in neighboring markets as the relatively stronger rand continues to limit South Africa’s competitiveness in global markets, the FAS noted. Top destinations also include Botswana, Mozambique, Vietnam, Namibia and Eswatini.

Year-end stocks are forecast at 1.6 million tonnes in 2025-26, sufficient to cover approximately one-and-a-half months of commercial utilization. Stocks in 2024-25 reached 2 million tonnes, recovering 200% from the decade low of 2023-24. The South African government does not maintain strategic corn reserves nor impose regulatory requirements for minimum stock levels.

Tags: corn, export, South Africa