South Africa’s citrus oversupply puts growing pressure on export markets

South Africa’s citrus industry is facing the risk that production and export growth is outpacing the capacity of its key destination markets. In 2026, the problem has been particularly visible in lemons, where a sharp increase in supply quickly led to market saturation.

South African lemon exports this season are estimated at around 51 mln 15-kg cartons, up by 10 mln cartons from last year. Prices remained strong early in the season, but within a few weeks excess supply sharply increased pressure on the market. The EU currently accounts for around 47% of South African lemon exports, compared with 42% a year earlier.

Because of weaker demand, some fruit sizes and grades were not exported at all this year, an unusual development for the industry. Similar problems also emerged with late mandarins, with some sizes proving difficult to place on international markets.

The situation is raising concerns over whether global markets can absorb further growth in South African citrus exports. Total citrus exports in 2026 are expected at around 198.5 mln cartons, while the industry’s strategy envisages an increase to 226.2 mln cartons in 2027 and 265.7 mln cartons by 2032.

Additional pressure is coming from lower shipments to the Middle East and other traditional markets, forcing more fruit into already saturated destinations or into processing. At the same time, prices for juicing oranges have fallen from R2,000–2,500/t two years ago to around R400–500/t, while some processing plants are already operating close to capacity.

Tags: South Africa, citrus fruits