South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports will remain substantial

South Africa is a net wheat importer, and October 3 marked the first week of the new 2025-26 marketing year. The imports for the first week of the 2025-26 marketing year totalled 20,362 tonnes. The suppliers were from Australia (53%), Lithuania (43%) and Poland (5%).

We expect South Africa’s 2025-26 wheat imports to reach 1.74 million tonnes, down marginally from 1.83 million tonnes in 2024-25 marketing year because of an expected slight recovery in the domestic harvest.

For anyone wondering why South Africa imports wheat, I must highlight some brief historical perspective I have shared here before. South Africa began importing over a million tonnes of wheat from the 2003-04 marketing year.

In the years before that, wheat imports averaged 458,518 tonnes, for example, between 1989-90 and 2002-03. The import surge resulted from increased consumption and a decline in area plantings.

From the 1997-98 season, South Africa’s wheat plantings fell below a million hectares, the norm in seasons before this period. This decline is better explained by the profitability challenges that farmers have faced since that period, specifically in the Free State and in non-conducive climatic conditions.

The critical thing to recall is that before 1997-98, South Africa’s agricultural markets were regulated, and the various commodities boards played a massive role in setting prices, including wheat.

Thus, after deregulation, South African farmers had to compete in the global market. Therefore, the Free State production areas came under profitability strain, resulting in farmers switching from wheat to other profitable crops.

Other provinces of South Africa don’t have large areas with conducive climatic conditions for high-quality wheat milling for human consumption. Hence, we speak of a few central wheat-producing provinces, including the Western Cape and those under irrigation in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.

A significant development over the years has been the improvement in productivity in South Africa’s wheat farming. In 1997-98, South Africa’s wheat yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. The yields are 3,8 tonnes per hectare as of the 2024-25 production season.

Because of improved profitability, South African wheat production has remained relatively large. The 2021/22 crop was the largest in 20 years, at about 2.3 million tonnes.

In 2025-26, the crop is estimated at 2.03 million tonnes. This is insufficient to meet annual consumption. Thus, we say, South Africa will likely import about 1.74 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year to supplement the domestic supplies. The current import volumes are roughly half of South Africa’s annual wheat needs of 3.8 million tonnes.

Author: Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).

Tags: yields, South Africa, imports, consumption, plantings, Production, wheat