South Africa expects another bumper harvest

The Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) has released its ninth production forecast for South Africa’s 2024/25 summer grain and oilseed season, showing one of the best harvests in recent years. According to the CEC, total production of major crops has increased by 1% from the September estimate to 20.08 million tonnes — 30% higher than the previous season, which was affected by drought.

The expected commercial maize crop is estimated at 16.32 million tonnes, up 0.9% (146,000 tonnes) from the previous forecast and 27% above the 2024 harvest. The average maize yield stands at 6.29 t/ha, with the Free State, Mpumalanga, and North West provinces accounting for 82% of total production. White maize output is projected at 8.34 million tonnes and yellow maize at 7.99 million tonnes.

CEC reported that the production forecasts for sunflower seed (708,300 tonnes), soybeans (2.75 million tonnes), groundnuts (61,400 tonnes), sorghum (144,700 tonnes), and dry beans (90,600 tonnes) remain unchanged from the previous month. The canola forecast was slightly increased to 311,900 tonnes.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at Agbiz, said the increase reflects favorable summer rains and strong planting activity. “After last year’s drought, we’re seeing a broad recovery. This abundant crop will likely ease domestic grain prices and help moderate food price inflation,” he noted.

Sihlobo added that South Africa’s maize output now far exceeds domestic needs of about 12 million tonnes, ensuring continued export availability. Farmers are already preparing for the 2025/26 planting season, expected to cover 4.49 million hectares — 1% more than last year. With La Niña rains forecast, prospects for another strong harvest remain high.

Tags: corn, grain, sunseed, crop forecast