Wheat production for the 2024-25 marketing year is estimated at 32 million tonnes, 21% above the previous 10-year average despite insufficient rainfall amounts in the southern part of Australia, where most of the country’s wheat is grown.
“This production estimate is supported by grain receival data from Australia’s three major handlers — GrainCorp, Viterra and CBH,” the FAS said. “Achieving this result would be extraordinary given the season challenges faced by growers in southern New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. In contrast, northern New South Wales and Queensland experienced favorable conditions but typically collectively account for less than 20% of national wheat production.”
Wheat exports are seen increasing by 26% to 24 million tonnes, up 4.2 million tonnes from 2023-24, the FAS said.
“This growth is primarily attributed to an estimated production increase of 6 million tonnes,” the FAS said. “If realized, this would mark the fourth largest wheat export volume on record, surpassing the 10-year average of 19 million tonnes. However, it remains 25% below the record 31.8 million tonnes achieved in 2022-23.”
The FAS noted that China, traditionally one of Australia’s biggest wheat buyers, reduced its share of Australian wheat exports in recent months.
“This is mainly due to exports to China slowing to a trickle the last three months of 2023-24 and the first two months of 2024-25, levels not seen since Australia’s drought-impacted supply shortages across 2017-2019,” the FAS said.
Australia’s barley output for 2024-25 is pegged at 11.7 million tonnes, an 8% increase from the prior year. The FAS said the increase “is primarily attributed to a 6% expansion in planted area.” A 6% increase in yield is also cited as a reason for the rise in production.
“A contributing factor to the barley yield improvement is that Australian barley producers continue to reduce their focus on producing malt-grade barley and instead are increasingly focused on higher-yielding feed-grade barley,” the FAS said.
Despite the significant production increase, barley exports for 2024-25 are estimated at 5.5 million tonnes, a 23% decline from the previous year, the FAS said. The FAS explained that China’s re-entry to the market following the removal of trade tariffs led to a dramatic surge in exports in 2023-24, which led to significantly reduced barley stocks going into this year.
The lower level of barley exports is “based on a relatively low starting stock position with little scope to draw down, unlike the situation in 2023-24.”
