Slow demand squeeze pinto, black bean prices

The price outlook for pinto and black beans is about to improve, while prices for many other classes are already on the rise, according to two traders of the crop.

Pinto and black bean prices have been on a downward slide since spring.

“We’re reaching the bottom, so the downside risk seems to be pretty limited,” Sam Peck, a trader with Jack’s Bean International, said during a recent Global Pulse Confederation (GPC) webinar.

Orion Roy-Wright, a trader with Archer Daniels Midland, agrees with that assessment. He is forecasting stable to higher prices for those two classes of beans.

Farmers in Canada and the United States overproduced blacks and pintos in response to overwhelming demand from Mexico last year as it came to grips with a devastating drought.

Roy-Wright estimates U.S. pinto and black bean production was up 35 to 40 per cent this year, while navy bean production fell 20 per cent.

David Larios, a trader with Aliansa, estimates that Mexico’s imports of U.S. black and pinto beans doubled or tripled in 2023-24 compared to the usual volume of 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes.

A lot of those imported beans are still in storage and there appears to be a rebound in production on the way for Mexico’s new crop, so demand is tailing off in a big way.

Peck said last year was the second biggest export program on record for the U.S.

“We don’t expect that at all this year,” he said during the GPC webinar.

He estimates Mexico might take one-quarter of last year’s volumes, which is why black and pinto bean prices have been plunging.

Peck expects more interest in pintos than blacks because Mexico’s black bean growing area received plenty of rain while its pinto area might struggle a bit.

The price outlook for white, great northern and kidney beans remains bullish. They are all benefiting from Argentina’s crop wreck.

Peck is hearing that China’s kidney beans have quality issues due to untimely harvest rain. He thought China would pick up some of Argentina’s slack, but that no longer appears to be the case.

It doesn’t help that U.S. kidney bean yields are 15 to 20 per cent below average. That means export markets are out of luck.

“A good amount of our crop had already been pre-sold domestically, so when Argentina had problems, that just made the whole situation more difficult,” he said.

Roy-Wright said carryout of navies, dark red kidneys, light red kidneys and great northerns will be non-existent.

“I don’t know how we’re going to solve this problem because there’s a bit of a gap here in terms of demand and production,” he said.

“You’re going to have to ration pricing.”

He is forecasting a “leaking” of U.S. black bean acres into navies and other classes in the spring.

“If people have the ability to grow dark reds or light reds, they will,” said Roy-Wright.

“They will get pushed back into it because I believe those are going to get very pricey this year.”

Larios said Mexico harvested a good chickpea crop. He estimates production at 200,000 tonnes.

The country produces large calibre kabuli chickpeas that compete with India’s 12 millimetre product.

However, India has been “very, very absent” from the market this year, so demand for Mexico’s crop has been exceptionally robust.

Peck said U.S. chickpea yields were light, taking many processors by surprise.

Roy-Wright said seed size was also an issue. There is ample quantities of small calibre chickpeas for the domestic market, but the higher caliber product destined for export is in short supply.

“Definitely not a great year,” he said.

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Tags: kidney beans, demand, pinto beans, black beans, Mexico, white beans, price, United States, Canada, Production, crop