Severe frosts in the Black Sea region and dry weather in Argentina will affect agricultural markets this week

Cold weather with frosts of -10-18 degrees has been persisting in Ukraine for the second week, but a layer of snow will protect winter crops from damage. In the eastern regions, the snow layer is less, which increases the risk of losses, especially given the dry conditions during sowing and weaker crops. At the end of this week, temperatures are expected to rise to -5..0 degrees and new snowfalls, which will improve moisture reserves.

The cold front came from the northeast of the Russian Federation, but it did not affect the southwestern regions of the Russian Federation, where the main areas of winter wheat are concentrated, so the risks of crop damage are low. In the northern and eastern regions, a large layer of snow protects crops from frost.

In southern and central Argentina, rising temperatures and drought in recent weeks have led to a decrease in soil moisture and a deterioration in crop conditions. A front passed through the north over the weekend, bringing rain, but it did not reach the southern regions, and this week hot weather of 28-33 degrees has set in, which will exacerbate the drought.

According to the weekly forecast of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the outlook for the 2025/26 corn and soybean harvest in Argentina’s main producing regions could worsen due to insufficient rainfall in January. The Rosario Grain Exchange, which expects a record Argentine corn harvest of 62 million tonnes, also noted adverse weather conditions over the past month after above-average rainfall in 2025.

Central Brazil has seen an increase in rainfall over the past week, which should help the ripening of a record soybean crop. Recent heat and limited rains may have made things a little more difficult in the south, but a front that will cover northern Argentina will bring precipitation to southern Brazil as well.

This winter, the Midwest and Plains of the United States have been experiencing a series of extreme warm-cold spells, with another cold snap and short-term frosts of -15-20 degrees expected this week. Last week’s warm weather has reduced snowpack, increasing the risk of crop damage. If snow falls before the frost, the risks will be reduced and speculative gains in prices will be limited.

Rain and snowfall last week raised water levels in the Mississippi, but they remain below normal.

Soil moisture is favourable for winter wheat crops across much of Europe , which are dormant in the north and growing in the Mediterranean. Increased rainfall is forecast for much of the continent late last week.

Soil moisture is decreasing in many regions of Australia , although the situation is mixed in the east. Dry weather will continue in most areas next week, which will negatively affect the development of sorghum and cotton crops.

Tags: crop condition