Sergey Feofilov. Ukrainian grain trade: Onward and upward in 2025!

As we wrap up another year, December is an essential time to reflect on past market trends and forecast what 2025 holds for us in the grain trade. Insights from Sergey Feofilov, PhD in Economics, founder of “UkrAgroConsult,” reveal expectations that are crucial for traders and stakeholders alike.

Q: UKRAGROCONSULT – THE 2024 A YEAR OF GROWTH AND RESILIENCE. A MILESTONE YEAR IN GRAIN TRADING.

Sergey Feofilov: For UkrAgroConsult, 2024 marked a significant milestone—our 30th anniversary! This anniversary is a testament to our resilience and innovation in the ever-evolving grain market. We continue to enhance our services, innovate trading strategies, and remain steadfast in our mission—consulting markets that feed the globe!

Our priority remains fostering collaboration among participants in the Black Sea-Danube region (including Ukraine, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, and Serbia) to navigate the rapidly shifting landscape of global grain trading. The Black Sea-Danube region currently might be positioned as a key player driving global market trends while adapting to dynamic challenges.

Throughout 2024, demand for analytical services surged notably. This reflects a shift in trader awareness—a response that data-driven decision-making is key to capturing market opportunities.

UkrAgroConsult is recognized for providing timely market analyses, real-time pricing updates, and logistics trends researches. Our latest service, a “Brain Storm” session via Zoom or Teams, allows to respond to client queries creatively, targeting profitable opportunities.

Q: MARKET FOCUS FOR 2025: OPPORTUNITIES IN GRAIN AND OILSEED TRADING

Sergey Feofilov: Looking ahead, the primary efforts for 2025 will focus around securing investments in grain and oilseed processing to increase the share of high-value-added products in exports.

As we venture into 2025, key traders considerations will include:

• Ensuring market safety and refining logistics chains.
• To enhance processing capacities and export of value-added products like oils and meal. This will be critical to enhancing profit margins.
• With a spotlight on energy independence, growth of biofuel production alongside with renewable energy solutions may further drive down operational costs.
• Strengthened financial access for farmers and their adapting to climatic changes are also essential to mitigate rising production costs.

Additionally, trade flows will shift towards North Africa, Asia, and the Middle East—regions with a growing appetite for grains and oilseeds. Ukraine is well equipped to respond, expanding its market footprint and meeting emerging demands.

Q: WHAT ARE YOUR PERSPECTIVES FOR GRAIN AND OILSEED HARVESTS IN 2025?

Sergey Feofilov: Rapeseed and sunflower will remain the most profitable crops, while corn margin will grow definitely due to a recovery in demand. The initial forecasts for 2025 are quite positive. The grain harvest is expected to be between 55 and 65 M mt, with grain exports projected at 40-50 M mt. The harvest of oilseeds is also expected to exceed 2024 figures, anticipated to be around 24 M mt.

Q: HOW DO YOU THINK ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AI) WILL AFFECT AGRICULTURAL BUSINESS AND MARKET ANALYTICS?

AI opinion: Artificial intelligence is already actively transforming approaches to business and market analytics, and this influence will only grow.

Sergey Feofilov: I absolutely agree that the impact of AI will continue to increase over time, not just for farmers but also for other sectors, such as fertilizer, pesticide producers, and other inputs suppliers, opening up new opportunities. I believe AI can serve as a valuable tool for enhancing the efficiency of cultivation technologies through the optimization of production processes and risk minimization. Implementing AI in company operations will allow a focus on strategic business tasks while automating routine tasks execution. Companies that quickly adapt to these changes will undoubtedly gain a competitive advantage.

I am confident that the UkrAgroConsult team, with its 30 years of experience in market analytics and high validity rates in short-term and long-term forecasts, will maintain a significant share of the market for analytical services.

Q: ATTENDING AGRICULTURAL CONFERENCES HAS BECOME MAINSTREAM NOT ONLY FOR TRADERS BUT ALSO FOR PRODUCERS AND PROCESSORS. WHAT CONFERENCES DOES UKRAGROCONSULT PLAN TO HOST IN 2025?

Sergey Feofilov: Indeed, conferences have become an important platform for discussing current challenges in agriculture, for seeking innovative solutions, establishing new partnerships, and sharing experiences.

For 2025, we have planned a series of international conferences in Ukraine and the EU—BLACK SEA GRAIN.EUROPE in Prague in February 2025, BLACK SEA GRAIN.KYIV in April in Kyiv, and BLACK SEA OIL TRADE in Bucharest in October. We invite all operators of the agricultural market to join us for mutual development and the reconstruction of agricultural Ukraine!

Q: WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO WISH FOR 2025 FOR YOUR READERS AND YOURSELF?

Sergey Feofilov: I want to wish everyone resilience and growth despite the challenging market and political conditions, successful cooperation and partnerships, transforming risks into new opportunities, unity for common goals, and most importantly—peace.

Happy New Year!

With best wishes,
Sergey Feofilov

Tags: grain, Romania, price, Poland, Serbia, Sergey Feofilov, Ukraine, margin, Bulgaria, crop forecast, corn, UkrAgroConsult, export