Russian wheat exports to China decreased 15 times

In the first six months of 2025, wheat exports from Russia to China in monetary terms decreased by more than 15 times – from $38.9 million to only $2.5 million. This is evidenced by data from the General Administration of Customs of the PRC, which is cited by the Interfax agency.

In June, there were no deliveries at all, while a year ago, exports for this month amounted to $6.4 million. Data in physical terms are not disclosed.

Russian wheat was significantly inferior in volume to its competitors: in January-June 2025, China imported wheat from Canada for $361.3 million, from Australia for $190.2 million, and from Kazakhstan for $5.8 million. For comparison, throughout 2024, Russia exported wheat to China for $87.3 million, which is 2.5 times more than in 2023.

A decrease was also recorded in Russian barley exports. Over the past six months, supplies to China decreased from $100.1 million to $42.2 million, and in June they fell more than 14 times to $743.6 thousand compared to $10.6 million last year. At the same time, China actively purchased barley from other countries: from Australia – $927.3 million, Canada – $195.9 million, Argentina – $93.1 million. For the whole of 2024, the Russian Federation exported barley to China for $177.1 million.

Against this background, Russian corn exports increased: in January-June 2025, supplies more than doubled – to $49.4 million compared to $19.9 million a year earlier. In June, exports reached $19.7 million, which is 6 times more than in June 2024 ($3.4 million).

Meanwhile, analysts expect the new grain season to be the worst for Russia in the last 17 years. According to the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (ICAR), in July only 2 million tons of wheat will be exported from the Russian Federation — almost half as much as in the same period last year (3.6 million tons). SovEkon predicts 2–2.5 million tons, and Rusagrotrans — 2.4–2.6 million.

The situation is also worsened by a decrease in yields against the backdrop of droughts in the southern regions of Russia: according to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation, as of July 2, only 3.8 million tons of grain had been threshed, compared to 16.5 million last year.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat