Russia may introduce a zero grain export quota in February

The potential for grain exports from Russia in this agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025) is 22-23 million tons lower than last year, and as a result, the export quota (introduced from February 15 to June 30 annually) may become zero. However, despite this decline, Russia will retain its leading position in the global wheat market, says Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the Russian company ProZerno.

“The export potential is not bad, despite the decline in grain harvest this year, but it is 22 million tons, maybe even 23 million tons, lower than last year. Such a huge drop this season is quite obvious. It is already being felt a little bit, but only a little bit,” Petrichenko said at the XVI Congress of Russian Flour Milling and Cereal Enterprises in Moscow on Thursday.

According to him, the pace of exports “sometimes demonstrates ‘Stakhanov’s indicators’, but they will decrease.” The expert estimates grain exports in this agricultural year at 48.7 million tons.

Last season, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, exports totaled 72.2 million tons, including 54.1 million tons of wheat.

At the same time, Petrichenko noted that the most realistic estimate of supplies abroad depends on how much the intervention fund is “unpacked.” “It now contains about 4 million tons, which should be put on the market to ensure the export potential of 48-49 million tons. If this does not happen, it will be another minus 3-4 million tons,” he said.

According to the expert, commodity interventions (sales of grain from the intervention fund) may intensify in December-January.

According to his forecast, this season’s wheat exports may reach 40.4 mln tons. “The potential is almost 12 million tons down (compared to last year’s exports, which he estimates at 52.2 million tons), although we will still remain the world’s number one wheat supplier,” the expert emphasized.

Barley and corn shipments in the new season will be insignificant. “Barley will be the first to run out, as it is already difficult to find it for export. Corn exports may be closed in December, as there will be no commercial shipments,” said Petrychenko. He did not rule out that the grain export quota from Russia this season may be zero. “We will probably see this in the future,” he said.

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Tags: Russia, export, wheat, restrictions