Russia is reducing its share in the world wheat market

The 2024/2025 grain season has proven difficult for Russia, which is losing its share of the global wheat market, reducing it to about 20% at the end of the season, compared to a peak of 25–28% in previous years, according to estimates by the Institute of Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR). IKAR Director General Dmitry Rylko noted that the “compact harvest” of 2024, which amounted to 82.6 million tons of wheat and 125.9 million tons of grain in total, together with adverse weather conditions and increased competition, determined low export figures. In July 2025, wheat exports from Russia amounted to only about 2 million tons, which is almost half the level of last year and is the lowest figure in 17 years.

The 2024/2025 export season has proven financially challenging for Russian exporters, who have been operating at zero or negative margins due to low world prices, a strong ruble and export duties. According to Rylko, in the 2024/2025 season, Russia exported 42.2 million tonnes of wheat, the third highest ever, but still a decline compared to previous seasons. The forecast for the 2025/2026 season is 42 million tonnes of wheat exports with a harvest of 84 million tonnes, indicating continued leadership, but with a smaller share due to increased competition.

Weather challenges, such as extreme heat in southern Russia and heavy rains in the central regions, have worsened grain quality and reduced yields. This, together with the late start of the harvest, has caused delays in export chains. In addition, the reduction in wheat acreage in favor of oilseeds and legumes such as peas, chickpeas and lentils reflects a shift in farmers’ priorities due to better market conditions in these markets.

Competition on the global wheat market is intensifying due to increased production in EU countries, particularly France (+27%), Germany (+17%) and Spain (+20%), as well as the return of Ukraine and Argentina as strong exporters. According to USDA forecasts, global wheat production in the 2025/2026 season will reach a record 808.5 million tons, which puts pressure on prices. Russian wheat faces competition from Africa and South Asia, although demand from Turkey, which has lifted the embargo, could add up to 3 million tons to exports.

Dmytro Rylko is cautiously optimistic about the second half of the season, noting that an accelerated harvest campaign and possible improvement in weather could revive exports. However, according to IKAR, to maintain its competitiveness, Russia needs to adapt to new market realities, in particular through the development of exports to Asian countries, such as China, and the optimization of logistics, for example, through the ports of the Far East.

Tags: Russia, export, wheat