Rural Bank raises wheat and canola export forecasts for Australia

In 2023/24 MY, Australia will export 20 mln tonnes of wheat, 7.6 mln tonnes of barley and 5.8 mln tonnes of canola, – reports Grain central.

Rural Bank experts believe that the high rate of shipments may complicate the situation in case of unforeseen events in the second half of 2024. The price increase and concerns about the Russian harvest allowed to boost sales.

According to experts, wheat exports from Western Europe and the Black Sea region will decrease by 20-25 million tons, so in the long run, wheat prices may rise, although in the near future they will remain stable amid the new harvest.

China’s abolition of barley duties will boost barley supplies from Australia, so exports could reach 7.6 million tons, while domestic consumption will be 6 million tons and carryover stocks will be very low. The weather phenomenon of El Niño does not allow to get a good harvest.

In the EU, barley production will reach the 4-year high of 53.8 mln tonnes, while exports will increase by 12% to 7.3 mln tonnes compared to the previous season. Therefore, in 2024/25 MY the EU countries will become the main global barley exporter.

In 2023/24 MY, Australia exported 5.8-6 mln tonnes of canola, and in 2024/25 MY it will decrease to 4.5 mln tonnes, compared to the record 6 mln tonnes in 2022/23 season. The EU will reduce the purchases of Australian canola amid the increase of supplies from Ukraine and Canada. In addition, the competition between rapeseed and palm oil is growing.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in May the country increased the export of rapeseed by 4% from 647.7 thsd tonnes to 676.7 thsd tonnes compared to April, while in the first half of 2023 the exports amounted to only 503.7 thsd tonnes.

In May, Pakistan unexpectedly became the largest buyer of Australian rapeseed, purchasing 181.3 thsd tonnes of the oilseed. Japan (132.8 thsd tonnes) and Belgium (122.5 thsd tonnes) took the next positions.

In 2023/24 MY, Australia exported 1.1 mln tonnes of pulses, with lentils accounting for the major part of the exports.

Improved conditions for canola crops in Canada will increase the competition with the new canola crop in Australia, but the decline in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the EU will increase the demand for the old crop.

Tags: crop forecast, Australia, export, wheat, rapeseed