Rising biodiesel production pushes Brazil soyabean exports down

Growing biodiesel production in Brazil is set to lower soyabean oil exports from the country, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

USDA data published in April 2025 forecasts Brazilian soyabean oil exports in 2024/25 to be 16% lower than previously predicted. The updated projection puts exports at 1.3M tonnes, down from the 1.55M tonnes previously forecast.

Soyabean oil exports will be down, despite an expected record soyabean harvest of nearly 12M tonnes and a crush that’s higher than in the previous year, due to rising biodiesel production in Brazil.

According to the USDA, Brazilian biodiesel producers will increase their output despite the Brazil National Energy Council’s February 2025 decision to keep the country’s biodiesel blend rate at 14%.

The blend had previously been scheduled to increase to 15% in March 2025.

Despite this, domestic industrial demand has exceeded Brazil’s soyabean oil production growth, which has resulted in lower-than-expected exports.

Partially due to the higher crush in Brazil, as well as the European Union (EU), global general oilseed crush has grown, the USDA report stated.

This coincides with a growing global demand for vegetable oils. However, global oilseed production is projected to fall due to a reduction in Chinese cottonseed and EU rapeseed and sunflowerseed production.

Additionally, global vegetable oil production, trade, and stocks is on a downward trend due to a slower palm oil output growth in Southeast Asia.

Although the palm oil output is projected to be slightly higher in 2024/25, the expected hike in Indonesian biodiesel use is set to lower available exports.

Due to lower palm oil exports from Indonesia, as well as Malaysia and Thailand, global vegetable oil prices have trended higher in early 2025, but the expected strong Argentinian soyabean harvest and crush are expected to keep the rising prices in check.

The USDA also noted that Chinese rapeseed imports will be significantly higher than previously estimated. Updated data showed that the projected rapeseed imports in China will reach 4M tonnes, up by 1M tonnes from the previous estimate.

Chinese rapeseed end users have been importing higher amounts of the oilseed due to tariffs introduced between China and Canada as part of their ongoing trade dispute.

Meanwhile, rapeseed meal imports from Canada to China are projected to fall by 800,000 tonnes to 2.2M tonnes due to the current 100% tariff.

Tags: soybean oil, Brazil