Replacement of Ukrainian corn in the global market

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Maryna Marynych

Grain Market Analyst

In the spring, we analyzed who would be able to replace Ukraine in the world corn market. Now, at the end of the eighth month of the war, we can already check if our predictions were correct.

In October 2022, the USDA did not significantly change its 2021/22 global corn export estimates from the May ones. A reduction in U.S. exports was set off by an increase in Ukrainian corn shipments through the “grain corridor.”

EU

Ukraine has managed to keep its market share in the EU, corn exports by land during the port blockade could only be made to this destination.

Many EU countries were affected by drought this summer, which reduced corn yields. The European Commission raised its estimate of this season’s imports to 21 M mt (16.3 M mt in MY 2021/22). UkrAgroConsult expects EU demand for Ukrainian corn to remain steadily high.

China

During the blockade of Ukraine’s deep-sea ports, it was almost impossible to export large consignments of corn over long distances. Therefore, the export of corn from Ukraine to China came close to zero.

The first ships to China were sent as late as September, carrying a total 83 K mt of corn. Ukrainian exporters will try to export as much as possible while the “grain deal” is in effect. Numerous participants of the grain market are interested in this deal. Therefore, UkrAgroConsult believes the “grain deal” has high chance to be extended after November 19.

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Tags: Ukraine, China, corn, EU, USA