Regular Rains Not Expected in Central Brazil Until Late October

Farmers in central Brazil are authorized to start planting their 2024/25 soybeans, but the weather is not cooperating. The annual dry season in central Brazil started earlier than normal in late April and it has been characterized by hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions with many locations registering temperatures of at least 40°C (104°F).

Usually, the first summer rains in central Brazil occur sometime during about mid-September, but rainfall during this September has been limited with only widely scattered light showers. According to a forecast from the consulting firm Agro do Itau BBA, rainfall in central Brazil will only become more regular during the third and fourth week of October and even then, they will be irregular and poorly distributed.

This is not good news for farmers in central Brazil who would like to plant their soybeans as early as possible to allow enough time to plant a second crop of corn or cotton after the soybeans are harvested. The ideal planting window for a second crop of cotton closes by the end of January and for corn, it closes about the third week of February.

For the first crop of soybeans, a delayed start to planting may not impact the eventual yield if the weather cooperates during the remainder of the growing season. Delayed planting may increase the cost of production because farmers may have to increase their fungicide applications to adequately control soybean rust disease. The best way to reduce the cost of controlling the disease is to plant early and harvest early.

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Tags: yield, cotton, second crop of corn, rains, planting, Brazil, weather, soybeans