Reduced maize harvest drives a modest decline in global cereal production in 2024 – FAO

FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2024 stands at 2 848 million tonnes, marginally down (0.4 percent) from the previous year, though still the second largest output on record.

In 2024, global wheat production is projected to rise year-on-year to the second-highest level on record. The increase is largely driven by production upturns in Asia that were largely underpinned by area expansions; conducive weather also has supported good yields which more than offset large declines among key European producers.  After reaching a record in 2023, global coarse grain production is forecast to decline in 2024 to the second highest level on record. Most of the year-on-year decline is attributed to a sizeable downturn in global maize production, primarily driven by adverse weather conditions. For rice, the 2024/25 season is likely to be characterized by record-breaking plantings, as prospects of positive margins encouraged producers to bring more area under paddy. This could result in world rice production surpassing the already excellent 2023/24 result by 0.8 percent to reach a record high of 538.9 million tonnes (milled basis).

Looking ahead to 2025, winter wheat sowing is underway across the northern hemisphere, with weaker prices expected to limit plantings. In the United States of America, sowing is progressing at an average pace, but drought conditions are affecting a larger wheat area than the previous year. In the European Union, heavy rains in central and western areas have impeded sowings for a second consecutive year, but improved soil moisture levels in Romania and Bulgaria following dry weather conditions earlier in the year. In the Russian Federation, low rainfall amounts and above-average temperatures in the southern and central regions have delayed sowing operations, with similar challenges in parts of Ukraine where the war continues to undermine agricultural production.

In Far East Asia, remunerative prices, government support policies and generally favourable weather conditions are boosting wheat area prospects in the leading producers China and India in 2025.

In the southern hemisphere countries, sowing of the 2025 coarse grain crops is underway. In South America, early indications point to a contraction in maize plantings in Argentina amid moisture deficits. In Brazil, the main season maize crop will be planted only next year, while the minor crop is being sown and the area could decline on account of better prospects for competing crops. In South Africa, near-record white maize prices and a favourable weather outlook, following drought conditions that affected the 2024 crop, are supporting prospects of an uptick in 2025 maize plantings. Additionally, a likely return to wetter weather conditions for the 2025 maize crop is also underpinning favourable production prospects in neighbouring Southern African countries.

Pegged at 2 857 million tonnes, the world cereal utilization forecast for 2024/25 points to a 0.5 percent increase from the 2023/24 level. The increase is underpinned largely by anticipated growth in food consumption, especially rice and wheat. In 2024/25, other uses of cereals are also seen increasing, albeit marginally, and are almost entirely linked to rice. By contrast, feed use of cereals is likely to contract fractionally due to declines in feed use of wheat and rice that should outweigh an anticipated increase in feed use of coarse grains.

Based on the current forecasts for global cereal production in 2024 and utilization in 2024/25, global cereal stocks could rise by 0.6 percent above their opening levels to 889 million tonnes. Global rice inventories are expected to increase the most, followed by coarse grain stocks. By contrast, stocks of wheat are likely to fall below their opening levels. With these current forecasts, the world’s cereal stocks-to-use ratio would decline fractionally, from 30.9 percent in 2023/24 to 30.6 percent in 2024/25, remaining near its five- and ten-year average levels.

World trade in cereals in 2024/25 is projected to decline from the 2023/24 level by 3.9 percent to 485 million tonnes. The decline stems from anticipated contractions in global trade of wheat and coarse grains, while, by contrast, global rice trade is forecast to increase.

Tags: rice, wheat, crop forecast, corn, grain