Red lentil supply depends on Canada, Australia

The 2025-26 red lentil market hinges on what happens with Australia and Canada, say analysts.

If those two countries have average yields, supply and demand will be well balanced, Chuck Penner, an analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, recently told delegates attending the Global Pulse Confederation’s Pulses 25 conference in Singapore.

Last year, there was a concern that the market would be over-supplied, but drought and frost slashed Australia’s production.

Australian farmers are expected to plant the same number of acres as 2024.

“If we pencil in an average yield at this point in time, what we would see is that production would bounce back considerably,” said Penner.

He is forecasting 1.69 million tonnes of production, up from 1.16 million tonnes in 2024-25.

Exports are estimated at 1.5 to 1.6 million tonnes, which would be double the current year.

However, he said the caveat is that it is dry in the main production areas in the states of Victoria and South Australia.

“That’s a real concern there,” he said.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences is forecasting 1.5 million tonnes of production, which would be 71 per cent above the 10-year average.

Simone Dax, a trader with Louis Dreyfus Company, agreed with Penner that it is early days for the Australian crop, and a lot can happen between now and harvest. July and August will be the telltale months.

If everything goes perfectly, production could meet Penner’s estimate. However, she pointed out that last year, farmers thought they would be harvesting a bumper crop until the rain stopped in July, August and September and then the frosts came.

“It didn’t take long for us to lose a million tonnes,” she said.

Canadian red lentil production is forecast at 1.54 million tonnes, down from 1.73 million tonnes last year. Exports are pegged at 1.33 million tonnes, a five percent drop.

“It isn’t a small crop, but certainly isn’t large either,” Penner told the Pulses 25 delegates.

Moisture conditions were favourable as of the end of May but have turned dry.

Seeded acres are up about one percent to 2.6 million acres.

Will Watchorn, a trader with Viterra, said in-crop weather will be far more important than seeded acres. He noted that Canada’s crops have not lived up to expectations in recent years.

Penner said seeded acreage is up in Russia and Kazakhstan. He is forecasting a combined 800,000 tonnes of production in those two countries, up from about 600,000 tonnes last year.

He expects a 50-50 split between green and red lentils.

Penner is forecasting 400,000 tonnes of Turkish red lentil production. However, since his presentation, the Turkish Statistical Institute released its estimate of 340,000 tonnes, a 16 per cent drop from the previous year.

Red lentil prices have been gradually edging lower in Australia and Canada.

“But overall, the market has been remarkably stable,” he said.

India’s prices have been trading in the US$700 to $800 per tonne range for several years due to the government’s minimum support price for the crop.

Canadian prices usually peak in the late-April to early-May period, but that didn’t happen this year due to India placing a 10 per cent import tariff on the crop.

Binod Agarwal, a trader with SGR Agri, thinks India’s 2024-25 red lentil production was closer to one to 1.2 million tonnes rather than the government’s forecast of 1.8 million tonnes.

However, he estimates that the country has one million tonnes of stocks, which includes government supplies and port inventory.

That should be sufficient to fill demand for the next four to five months.

Agarwal said the 10 per cent tariff makes imports unfeasible for the time being. He does not anticipate any import demand until October and November.

He thinks the red lentil market is going to be oversupplied, but if it stays dry in Australia it could easily be short 800,000 tonnes.

Andac Kolukisa, a trader with Natural Gida, said Turkey has no stocks of lentils.

The country typically imports 500,000 to 550,000 tonnes, with the bulk of that coming from Canada.

However, lentils from Russia and Kazakhstan are making inroads. Turkey imported 180,000 tonnes from those two countries in 2024-25, up from 130,000 tonnes a year ago.

He expects they will soon account for 30 to 40 per cent of imports, compared to 20 per cent in the past.

Tags: stocks, Market, red lentil, Australia, exports, prices, Canada, Production, yields