Record US, global corn output projected in 2025

Amid a developing global trade war, US and world corn production are projected at record highs for 2025, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

On the same day the administration of US President Donald Trump announced a temporary tariff de-escalation between the United States and China, the USDA projected US corn production in 2025 at 15.82 billion bushels, up 953 million bushels, or 6%, from 2024 and slightly above the average of pre-report trade estimates.

The 2025 projection was based on a harvested area of 87.4 million acres and a trendline yield of 181 bushels per acre, in line with analysts’ estimates. The projection of a planted area of 95.3 million acres, if realized, would be the highest in more than a decade, the USDA noted in its report.

US 2025-26 corn exports were projected at 2.675 billion bushels, up 2.9% from 2.6 billion bushels in 2024-25, with the United States the world’s top corn exporter.

Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2026, was projected at 1.8 billion bushels, up 27% from 1.415 billion bushels forecast for 2025, both coming in below the average of pre-report trade estimates. The season-average farm price was projected at $4.20 per bushel, down 15¢, or 3.4%, from the year prior.

“The US feed usage and exports were stronger than expected, especially for export, where the USDA was very aggressive, leading to the lower-than-expected ending stocks number on new-crop corn,” said Patrick Sparks, vice president of Global Risk Management, Inc. “Although stocks were lower than expected, they are still projected to grow solidly year over year and would be the highest since 2019-20.

“US corn export sales continue to be strong, with the US well positioned for nearby shipment in the world market. The USDA has reflected this by increasing their old-crop US corn export forecast the last few WASDEs, including today.”

The USDA forecast 2025-26 world corn production at a record 1.265 billion tonnes, with a carryover on Sept. 1, 2026, of 277.8 million tonnes, down 3.5% from the year prior.

The USDA left unchanged its estimate for Argentina’s 2024-25 corn production at 50 million tonnes and slightly raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024-25 corn production to 130 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from the prior month’s estimate.

“Brazil’s corn crop was raised 4 million tonnes today, with the safrinha crop looking good, and early yields from Argentina’s harvest have been solid,” Sparks said. “The South American supply should slow US exports this summer and early into the new 2025-26 season.”

Earlier in the day, President Trump and administration officials touted a 90-day tariff rollback with China. Until August, the United States will impose a base 30% tariff on most Chinese imports, while China will lower its base tariff on imports from the United States to 10%. Those rates are down from tariffs of 145% and 125%, respectively, in place since early April.

“The news with China was much more aggressive than expected,” Sparks said. “In terms of corn trade, I’m not sure it changes much short term, as they weren’t buying US corn this season anyway. Where it could be bullish is if China signs some good-faith purchase agreements to appease the United States — something to watch for.”

China was the No. 8 importer of US corn by value in 2024, accounting for more than $327 million in trade, according to data from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. Meanwhile, No. 2 importer Japan ($2.8 billion) signaled May 12 that it could increase its purchases of US corn as part of ongoing trade negotiations, according to comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba before parliament.

Corn sales to Mexico ($5.6 billion), which took more than 40% of US corn exports last year, remain tariff-free under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.

Old-crop Chicago corn futures edged down following the WASDE release, while new-crop corn futures saw mild gains. Ahead of the report, in the week ended May 6, money managers slashed their net long positions in Chicago corn futures by more than 80%, according to a Reuters report.

“Like any year, it comes down to weather,” Sparks said. “A 181-bushel-per-acre yield is a high mark, and with record demand forecasts from the USDA to go with it, prices will react quickly to any summer weather threat. Even in good yielding years we tend to get some weather rally along the way, so look for increased volatility in the coming months.

“Into harvest, even with the bullish demand forecasts from today, with normal weather I would look for corn to have the opportunity to trade lower. Those large export and feed numbers from today likely require lower prices to achieve.”

Tags: USDA Report, USA, crop forecast, corn