Record grain output to lift carryover stocks to nine-year high

Global carryover stocks of grains in the 2025/26 marketing year are expected to rise to their highest level in nine years amid record world production, according to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC). The Council forecasts total global grain output at a record 2.461 billion tonnes.

Compared with its November outlook, the IGC raised its projection for total grain (wheat and coarse grains) production by 31 million tonnes and increased the carryover estimate by 15 million tonnes to 634 million tonnes. Overall global grain output in 2025/26 is now seen rising 6% year on year.

The upward revision reflects improved prospects for maize (corn), mainly in the United States and China, wheat led by Canada and Argentina, and larger barley crops in Canada and Australia. Global wheat production is forecast at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous season.

Corn output is also expected to reach an all-time high of 1.313 billion tonnes, representing a 6% year-on-year increase. While consumption of wheat and coarse grains is projected to climb to a record 2.416 billion tonnes, demand growth is not expected to keep pace with expanding supply.

If realized, carryover stocks would increase by 8% year on year, marking the fastest expansion since the 2017/18 marketing year. In contrast, global soybean production in 2025/26 is forecast to edge down slightly to 427 million tonnes from last year’s peak, while consumption is expected to rise 3% to a record 432 million tonnes, driven by stronger demand across feed, food and industrial uses.

Rice production is projected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year, but total consumption is set to reach a new peak of 538 million tonnes, supported by population growth. Trade volumes for wheat, coarse grains, soybeans and rice are expected to increase modestly in 2025/26. Meanwhile, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index fell 4% from November to 213, with the year-on-year decline also at 4%, led by a sharp drop in rice prices and lower wheat and corn values.

Tags: grain, barley, rice, wheat, stocks, crop forecast, corn