Record Grain Exports to Stress Brazilian Ports in 2025

Brazilian farmers are expected to harvest record soybean and corn crops in early 2025 which could cause logistical issues at Brazilian ports and put upward pressure on freight rates according to Itau BBA Consulting.

For the 2024/25 growing season, Itau BBA is estimating that Brazil will produce 170.0 million tons of soybeans and 125.0 million tons of corn, both records. Soybean exports in 2025 are estimated at 105 million tons with 42 million tons of corn exports. Additionally, Brazil is expected to export 35 million tons of sugar and 23 million tons of soybean meal bringing the 2025 total exports of these four products to over 205 million tons, which is 10 million tons more than 2024.

Additionally, the soybean harvest is expected to be concentrated during the month of February because the soybean planting was concentrated during the second half of October and early November. Logistical issues could be compounded if there is an extended period of wet weather during February.

The freight charge by truck from Sorriso, Mato Grosso to the Port of Paranagua in southeastern Brazil was R$ 473 per ton in July (approximately $2.15 per bushel) and R$ 386 per ton in December (approximately $1.75 per bushel). The reason for the decline was cheaper diesel prices. Freight rates are expected to increase as soon as farmers start to harvest what is expected to be a record soybean crop.

Brazil has invested billions of reals on new ports and port expansions, but it has not been able to keep up with the increasing production of soybeans and corn. Favorable weather thus far during the 2024/25 growing season will lead to record production of both soybeans and corn.