Recent rainfall boosts Australian grain output

Despite the presence of an El Niño weather pattern, Australia’s eastern states have received above-average rainfall in recent weeks to boost grain production estimates for the 2023-24 marketing year, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Jan. 23 Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS said the timely rains have prompted a rise in the country’s sorghum and rice production estimates and kept projections for wheat and barley output close to the yearly average over the last decade.

Wheat production is expected to reach 25.5 million tonnes, far below the record of 40 million tonnes achieved in 2022-23 but near the previous 10-year average. Barley output is seen at 10.5 million tonnes, about only 6% below the 10-year average but 25% lower than the 2022-23 total of 14.1 million.

Years in which El Niño has been the dominant weather pattern have produced some of the smallest wheat and barley crops on record in Australia.

“The wheat and barley winter crops started with good fall rains and very good soil moisture reserves from the excessive rains in the previous spring,” the FAS said. “El Niño took hold in Australia from July 2023, which held the crops back to around average production for wheat and a little below average for barley with harvest for marketing year 2023-24 now completed.”

The rains have increased estimates for the sorghum crop to 1.8 million, the majority of which will be exported, the FAS said, while the rice crop for 2023-24 is estimated at 522,000 tonnes, one of the highest totals in recent memory.

“With the expectation of a big production year from the current crop, rice imports are forecast to decline by 11% to 200,000 tonnes, at around the typical pre-drought levels, and exports are forecast to increase by 12% to 280,000 tonnes, the highest since 2014-15,” the FAS said.

Tags: Australia, grain, crop forecast