Recent Bout of Last-Minute Rain and Hailstorm Expected to Impact Wheat Output In India’s Key States
In mid-January 2024, hopes were high for a record-breaking wheat harvest in India after consecutive years of poor yields. Agricultural Minister Arjun Munda announced increased wheat cultivation, raising expectations for the ongoing crop year. However, adverse weather conditions intervened.
Wheat is highly susceptible to high temperatures, a factor which significantly affected yields last year. Despite predictions of normal to below-normal temperatures in key wheat-growing states like Punjab, untimely hailstorms and heavy rain damaged crops just as farmers were ready to harvest.
Particularly in Punjab, around 150,000 hectares of wheat and rapeseed fields were devastated by the storms, leaving farmers concerned about yield losses. Forecasts of above-average temperatures and increased heatwave days in Northwest India further add to worries for the upcoming harvest season.
Wheat harvesting occurs between April and May, coinciding with forecasts of above-normal daytime temperatures and increased heatwave days, especially in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Despite this, experts remain cautiously optimistic, suggesting that some damaged crops may recover.
India had anticipated a record wheat harvest of 112 million tons in 2024, aiming to lift shipment curbs implemented in 2022 for food security and price control. However, the extent of weather damage may prompt a reassessment of these plans.
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