Rapeseed prices resumed growth despite increased canola supplies from Canada

May rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange have risen by 3.4% since the beginning of February, to €533/t or $557.4/t (+0.5% month-on-month) amid recovery in vegetable oil prices, limited rapeseed supply from local farmers, and a slowdown in imports.

The strengthening of the euro and Canadian dollar against the US dollar reduces the EU’s interest in Canadian canola, as the price difference narrowed from $140–120/t in December-January to $70–80/t in February.

May canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange rose 4.5% during February to CAD 674/t or $475/t (+5.3% month-on-month) amid strong export growth.

According to the weekly statistical report, Canada increased canola exports compared to the same period last year from 3.031 to 5.672 million tons, while the forecast for the entire season is 7.5 million tons. At the same time, Canadian canola imports to China in the first five months of the season amounted to only 2.687 million tons (with a forecast of 3 million tons in MY 2024/25) compared to 5.486 million tons in MY 2023/24.

Amid reduced purchases from China, Canada continues to increase canola exports to the EU. According to the European Commission, in the 2024/25 marketing year (as of February 7), EU countries increased their rapeseed imports by 12% compared to the same period of the previous season to 4.08 million tons (with a forecast of 6.85 million tons), of which 55% or 2.25 million tons were supplied from Ukraine (10% less than in the corresponding period of 2023/24 marketing year), 32% or 1.355 million tons – from Australia (+63%), 8.4% or 353 thousand tons – from Canada (8 times more than in the same period in 2023/24 marketing year).

Canadian canola processing in MY 2024/25 increased to 6.194 million tonnes compared to 5.588 million tonnes last year, confirming forecasts of a decline in demand for canola oil after the introduction of tariffs in the US for the biodiesel program. Therefore, instead of domestic processing, Canada will increase canola exports.

According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in December 2024, Australia reduced canola exports by 16% compared to November, from 709.43 to 593.81 thousand tons. In January, it could reach 604 thousand tons, and 491 thousand tons of oilseed are booked for shipment in February. The largest buyers of Australian canola in December were Belgium, Germany, France, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

EU farmers are holding back on rapeseed sales, awaiting an assessment of the state of winter rapeseed crops after the winter. If crops in the EU and Ukraine survive the winter well, prices may fall in March-April amid increased supply on the EU domestic market.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, Canada, rapeseed