Rapeseed prices on stock exchanges and in Ukraine are growing, despite increased harvest forecasts in Canada and Germany

August oil futures rose 14% in one week as Israel’s ongoing open war with Iran and concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz sent canola and rapeseed prices soaring, despite higher production forecasts in Germany and Canada.

In Ukraine, this week was spent waiting for the parliament’s decision to introduce a 10% duty on soybean and rapeseed exports from July 1, which could significantly affect the possibility of exports. But so far this initiative has been rejected, so traders have resumed declaring rapeseed prices in hryvnia.

During the week, traders increased forward prices for July rapeseed deliveries to Black Sea ports by $5-10/t to $530-535/t or UAH 24,500-24,800/t following the increase in prices on the Paris stock exchange.

August rapeseed futures on the Paris stock exchange rose by 1.7% to €500.25/t or $577/t over the week, responding only slightly (only +3.1% per month) to rising oil prices amid favorable weather in the EU.

The National Association of Agricultural Cooperatives in Germany has raised its rapeseed harvest forecast by 0.1 million tons to 3.92 million tons, which will be 8.1% higher than last year, as timely rains significantly improved yields.

July canola futures rose 3% to CAD 745/t or $ 544/t (+3.8% month-on-month), while November new crop futures rose 7% to CAD 744/t (+9.3% month-on-month), responding to dry conditions in Canada last week.

In Canada, cool weather with rain is forecast in the coming days, which will help the canola crop grow, although the amount of precipitation is still less than needed.

Oil World experts have increased the forecast for the canola harvest in Canada in 2025 to 18.8 million tons (19.1 million tons last year) due to an increase in the estimated sowing area from 8.5 to 8.75 million hectares (8.85 million hectares in 2024).

In the MY 2025/26, the volume of canola processing in Canada will be 11.1 million tonnes, which will almost correspond to the current season’s level (11.15 million tonnes) due to a reduction in domestic canola stocks and low demand for meal in the event that China continues its current trade restrictions, as well as an increase in global exports of soybean meal.

Canola stocks at the beginning of the MY 2025/26 will decrease compared to the previous season from 3.2 to 1.45 million tons, and its exports will decrease by 2 million tons to 7.3 million tons.

The start of the rapeseed harvest in the EU and the decline in oil prices following the end of Israel’s war against Iran could dramatically change the trend for rapeseed prices in July, but only if favorable conditions in Canada remain.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, Canada, rapeseed