Rapeseed prices in Ukraine rise due to exchange support, but increased imports of Canadian canola threaten demand

The active growth of European rapeseed quotations by 3.6% since the beginning of the week is supporting export prices for rapeseed in Ukraine, even though they were already at the highest levels compared to spot purchase prices of European processors.

Export purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine have risen by 100-200 UAH/t since the beginning of the week to 23,200-23,400 UAH/t or $490-495/t delivered to Black Sea ports. However, due to a lack of competition, prices are not reacting as strongly to the rise in quotations on the Paris exchange. In the market, only a few large exporters continue purchasing rapeseed, and the supply is sufficient to cover needs for the next month.

It is worth noting that prices for rapeseed delivered to plants in the Czech Republic and Germany remain around €470-480/t or approximately $520-535/t. Therefore, this season, deliveries of Ukrainian rapeseed directly from farmers to European plants have significantly decreased, as it is faster and more profitable to sell to traders in Ukrainian ports.

Rapeseed export rates from Ukraine in September fell by 50% compared to the same period in August, and as of September 22, about 414,000 tons had been shipped, which is also 3% less than in September 2023. In total, since the beginning of the 2024/25 season, rapeseed exports from Ukraine have reached 1.6 million tons, which is 13% more than a year ago. At the same time, supplies of rapeseed from Ukraine to the European Union reached 1.5 million tons, which is 27% more than a year ago.

As of September 19, 862,000 hectares have been sown with winter rapeseed in Ukraine, or 77% of the forecasted 1.123 million hectares, which is 17% less than last year’s figure. However, farmers continue sowing in anticipation of rainfall in the coming week and hope that the crops will have time to develop before winter.

November rapeseed futures on the Paris MATIF exchange rose by 3.6% over two days to €479.5/t or $536.6/t (+5.4% for the month), supported by rising prices for vegetable oils and crude oil.

Since the beginning of the current season up to September 15, European Union countries have imported 1.05 million tons of rapeseed, which is 36.8% more compared to the same period last season, including 616,700 tons from Ukraine and 351,800 tons from Australia.

According to Fediol, in August, the volumes of oilseed processing in the EU continued to grow, reaching 3.48 million tons, which is 224,000 tons (or 7%) more than in July (3.25 million tons) and exceeds the level of August 2023 (3.24 million tons). In particular, rapeseed processing in the specified month reached 1.88 million tons (1.66 million tons in July; 1.49 million tons in August 2023).

November canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange have risen by 2.5% since Monday to 604 CAD/t or $450/t (+2.4% for the month), supported by the rise in soybean oil prices in Chicago, which increased by 8.8% over the week, and the planned strike at the Port of Vancouver.

Canola exports from Canada continue to grow and reached 310,000 tons for the week of September 9-15, compared to 132,000 tons the previous week. In total, since the beginning of the season, exports have reached 1.44 million tons, which is three times higher than last year’s pace. This is due to increased shipments to EU countries amid relatively low prices for Canadian canola compared to European and Ukrainian rapeseed prices.

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Tags: EU, prices, Canada, rapeseed, Australia, Ukraine