Rapeseed prices are gradually recovering after falling
Unexpectedly optimistic data on rapeseed in the August USDA report led to lower prices for rapeseed and canola, especially amid a sharp drop in soybean prices.
USDA experts raised the forecast of global rapeseed production in MY 2024/25 by 0.9 to 88.8 (88.75) mln tonnes, primarily for Russia – by 0.8 to 5.1 mln tonnes, but did not lower the crop estimates for the EU and Ukraine, as analysts expected.
In Ukraine, as of August 8, 99% of the area harvested 3.32 million tons of rapeseed, but the USDA left its forecast at 3.7 million tons, which is 20% lower than in MY 2023/24. the Forecast of rapeseed production in the EU USDA left at 18.9 (20) million tons, while the European Commission has reduced the crop estimate to 18.38 million tons, and the Agency Strategie Grains – to 17.27 million tons (from 17.8 million tons in June).
November futures for rapeseed on the stock exchange in Paris yesterday rose by 0.9% to 457 €/t or 503 $/t (-3% for the month), partially recovering the fall of 2.6% after the release of the report. The rise of the Euro against the dollar to 1.101 limits the price increase in Paris and improves the prospects for increasing the supply of canola from Canada.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg stock exchange yesterday also rose 1.6% to 579 CAD/t or 422 $/t (-2.7% for the week, -6.2% for the month), but remain under pressure from a sharp drop in soybean prices in Chicago.
November futures for soybeans in Chicago for the week fell another 5.4% to the lowest since the fall of 2020 level of 356 $/t (-7.3% for the month) amid an increase in the forecast of soybean crop in the United States by 4.2 to 124,9 million tons (113,34 million tons in 2023/24 MG).
In Ukraine, the export purchase price of rapeseed for delivery to the ports of the black sea after falling on Monday to the level of 22000 UAH/t and below increased by 200-400 UAH/t to 22200-22400 UAH/t or 465-475 $/t due to reduced supply and the growth of the dollar on the interbank market.
In MY 2024/25 (from July 1 to August 11), the EU imported 0.44 million tons of rapeseed, which is 55% higher than 0.29 million tons in 2023/24 season. Almost 65% of the volume came from Australia and only 22% from Ukraine.
In July, Ukraine exported 278 thsd tonnes of rapeseed, up 15% compared to July 2023, but in August significantly increased the rate of exports.
Rising sunflower prices caused by lower crop forecasts will keep rapeseed prices in Ukraine high.
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