Rapeseed meal shortage worsens on global markets

Escalating global trade tensions could exacerbate the shortage of rapeseed meal on the world market in April-June 2025, as it is unclear under what conditions Canadian processors will be able to export canola meal to China and the US in the coming months, while Russian and Belarusian rapeseed meal is still subject to a 50% duty in the EU. This is what analysts at Oil World from Germany are drawing attention to.

Total global rapeseed meal exports are expected to decline to 2.1 million tonnes in April-June 2025, down 16% or 0.4 million tonnes year-on-year and the lowest quarterly volume since July-September 2022.

The European market is particularly affected by seasonally low rapeseed processing volumes – around 3 million tonnes in Q1 2025 (3.3 million tonnes in January-March 2025; 3.4 million tonnes in the corresponding period a year earlier). This situation has led to an increase in rapeseed meal prices in the EU. Overall, rapeseed meal prices in the EU are 5% above the April 2024 average of $313 per tonne. In Northern Germany, their price approached $330 per tonne. Argentine soybean meal is trading at $377/t, 11% below the level a year ago, which is leading to changes in demand from the feed industry.

According to OleoScope, the cost of rapeseed meal at the beginning of the month on FOB terms for delivery in April was $312.09/t

It was previously reported that Canadian canola could be the crop that will suffer the most from the massive retaliatory tariffs from the United States and China. This season, farmers will plant less canola and increase the area of ​​wheat. The total of 21.6 million acres (8.738 million hectares) will be the second consecutive annual decline of 1.7%.

Tags: EU, USA, rapeseed meal, China