Rainfall that will soon pass in the United States and Argentina will improve the condition of wheat crops

Traders’ attention is again focused on weather factors, especially given the lack of precipitation in Argentina and the USA and the delay in sowing in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which has already led to a decrease in estimates of the area sown.

Winter wheat growing regions of the United States saw rain and lower temperatures this week, but will warm again starting Monday, which will continue to improve crop conditions with additional precipitation.

The Midwest will be warmer next week, but there will be an increased chance of heavy downpours and scattered thunderstorms that will hamper harvest. The Southern and Central Plains of the United States also received rain, but they did not significantly reduce the effects of the drought. High temperatures and winds in areas where there is no rain continue to degrade soil moisture.

As of October 16, in the USA, corn was harvested on 45% of the area (40% on average over 5 years), soybeans on 63% (52%), sunflowers on 22% (19%). 69% of the area was sown with winter wheat (68% on average), but seedlings were obtained on only 38% (44% on average).

In the south and in the center of Brazil, favorable rains are coming for the sowing of soybeans and corn. During the week, they will intensify, which will slow down sowing, but its pace so far corresponds to last year.

A front will bring showers to Argentina over the weekend, which will continue throughout the week, but will not be enough to eliminate the effects of the drought. Dry weather has a negative impact on the filling of winter wheat, so the harvest forecasts have already been reduced to 15-16 million tons (compared to 23 million tons last year), even despite the expected rainfall. Sowing of corn is very slow, and soybeans will also begin to be sown in drought conditions. Rainfall forecast for the coming month will be below normal, which will reduce prospects for soybean and corn harvests.

In the center and south-west of the Russian Federation, where a significant part of winter wheat is grown, warm weather prevails with periodic precipitation, which improves the condition of crops, although it delays sowing. SovEkon experts reduced the estimate of the area of winter crops for the 2023 harvest to 18.8 million hectares and the wheat harvest to 84.8 million tons, while in the current season they amounted to 19.5 million hectares and 100.6 million tons, respectively.

In the Black Sea region, rains will pass in the coming days and temperatures will drop, which will promote the development of wheat crops, although it will delay the harvesting of sunflower and corn.

In Ukraine, 58% of the planned areas or 2.8 million hectares are sown with winter crops, in particular:

• wheat – 61% or 2.5 million hectares,
• barley – 39% or 265 thousand ha,
• with rye – 81% or 69 thousand ha.

In addition, 999,000 hectares or 104% of the planned areas were sown with winter rapeseed.

The pace of harvesting is inferior to last year. Thus, from 2.2 million hectares or 46% of the area, 4.5 million tons of sunflower were threshed with a yield of 2.05 tons/ha, from 389 thousand hectares or 26% – 1 million tons of soybeans with a yield of 2.58 tons/ha, with 228 thousand hectares or 5% – 996 thousand tons of corn with a yield of 4.37 tons/ha.