Rabobank warns of global pork trade restructuring due to tariffs and diseases

The international pork trade has been going through a turbulent few weeks. While prices have recovered and remain high, factors such as tariffs, livestock diseases and volatile production costs are changing the global landscape of the sector. This is reflected in the latest quarterly report on the global pork market (Q2 2025) from RaboResearch , the research group of Rabobank .

Europe and Latin America are strengthening their positions in China

According to the report, growing trade tensions between China and the United States are creating space for new suppliers. Although both countries have agreed to temporarily reduce tariffs, additional duties on U.S. pork remain in place and could slow shipments. This opens the door for exporters such as Brazil, Chile and the European Union to take advantage of this opportunity to strengthen their positions in the Chinese market.

“This could support prices in China and benefit alternative suppliers,” explains Christine McCracken, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. At the same time, US exporters could suffer losses on by-products and see margins squeezed, with the beef sector particularly affected.

Pigs are surviving, but the context doesn’t support it.

Despite the recovery, demand shows no signs of materially improving for the rest of the year, warns Rabobank. Slower economic growth, pressure on household spending and the potential for further business disruption mean the sector faces an uncertain future. However, high beef and chicken prices and a shift in consumption from hospitality to retail could benefit pork, which typically sells better in supermarkets.

On the production side, slow sow herd growth and health concerns are limiting global supply.

Foot and Mouth Disease, ASF and PRRS: Diseases continue to rage

The report highlights several worrying health issues. Foot and mouth disease has re-emerged in Europe after decades without cases, and new outbreaks have been reported in South Korea. Although trade restrictions are being gradually lifted, the damage has already been done. The situation is exacerbated by new cases of ASF (African Swine Fever) in Europe and Asia, and the persistence of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in parts of North America and Europe.

These diseases are not only complicating production, but are also affecting demand in some markets.

Feed Outlook Good, but with Cautions

On the cost side, there is some respite. A good harvest in South America and progress in the Northern Hemisphere planting are stabilizing feed prices. Rabobank expects costs to remain stable through 2025, although it does not rule out surprises: weather and the geopolitical situation remain key variables.

Tags: pork