Rabobank expects global phosphate fertilizer demand to fall 7% in 2026

The global fertilizer market remains under pressure from high prices, logistics disruptions and poor affordability for farmers, according to Rabobank’s latest outlook. The biggest challenges remain in the phosphate fertilizer segment, where high production costs and constrained supply are weighing on demand.

Global sulfur exports fell by nearly 40% y/y in the first half of 2026, pushing raw material prices to record levels and raising phosphate fertilizer production costs. Rabobank expects global phosphate demand to decline by 7% this year.

Conditions in nitrogen fertilizers are gradually improving. Urea prices have eased from peaks reached after tensions escalated in the Middle East, although volatility remains high. Rabobank forecasts global urea demand to fall by around 5% in 2026.

Potash remains the most stable of the major nutrient segments. Supply has been less affected by geopolitical and logistics disruptions, and Rabobank expects global potash demand to remain broadly stable compared with 2025.

Australia has largely avoided acute fertilizer shortages, importing 2.92 mln tons of urea since November 2025, around 15% below recent averages. However, high prices are already prompting farmers to reduce application rates, adjust crop rotations and shift toward less nitrogen-intensive production systems.

Tags: fertilizers, Rabobank, phosphate fertilizers